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BETTING

NBA Computer Picks for January 29: Don’t Sleep on the Warriors

There are 11 games on tonight’s NBA slate! With so much action, I went to the AI Model and looked for some value on the board. Here are three bets the AI Model loves for tonight’s matchups in the NBA.

Picks Summary

  • Bulls-Celtics Under 232.5 (-110) 
  • Suns (+105) 
  • Warriors +10.5 (-110)

*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)


Chicago Bulls vs. Boston Celtics

Wednesday, January 29, 2025 – 07:30 PM ET at TD Garden


The AI Model believes the Bulls and Celtics will score 232 points in tonight’s showdown. However, the total is stuck at 232.5 via Caersars. The Under is the best bet here.

Boston’s Defense Looks Great!

The Boston Celtics have limited teams to 111 points per 100 possessions. They’ve also been really good at holding teams away from the foul line, ranking second in defensive free throw rate.

This is ideal, considering the Bulls rank 29th in offensive free-throw rate. However, don’t expect many opportunities for the Bulls at the foul line. In addition, the Bulls have brought down just 24.2% of offensive rebounds.

When the Bulls struggle from the field against the Celtics, they won’t have second chances often.

Chicago Can Hang In There!

The Bulls won’t force many turnovers. After all, the Celtics rank first in offensive turnover rate, and the Bulls rank 29th in defensive turnover rate. Still, the Bulls have limited teams to 26.3% of offensive rebounds and have given up just a 17.2 free throw rate.

These are two areas that should be able to keep the Bulls in this game. The Celtics could struggle to push away.

Let’s grab the Under at -110 NBA odds in this game.

NBA Pick: Under 232.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook


Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Phoenix Suns

Wednesday, January 29, 2025 – 09:00 PM ET at Footprint Center


The AI Model suggests the Suns will escape the Timberwolves with a 110-109 home victory. You can find the Suns as slight underdogs at Caesars, sitting at +105. That’s the play.

Can The Suns Add More Turnovers?

The Phoenix Suns haven’t been poor on defense. They’re just not earning enough turnovers to make a difference.

After all, the Suns have added just 12.9% of turnovers per game this season, which ranks 27th in the NBA.

That said, the Timberwolves have turned the ball over 15.7% of the time, ranking 21st in the NBA. If Minnesota makes more errors and turns the ball over at the same rate, the Suns should take advantage.

Phoenix has limited teams to a 54% effective field goal percentage and a 19% free-throw rate, which are fair, average numbers.

Phoenix Has The Better Offense?

The Phoenix Suns have scored 115.2 points per 100 possessions. Ultimately, their score is a bit lower than that of other teams because they’ve added just 24.8% of offensive rebounds.

The Suns get to the foul line at a top-five rate and have added a 55.9% effective field goal percentage. It’s easy to rock with the Suns’ offense over Minnesota’s, especially with the Suns being home.

Take the Suns at +105 and ride it out with the Model.

NBA Pick: Suns (+105) at Caesars Sportsbook


Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Golden State Warriors

Wednesday, January 29, 2025 – 10:00 PM ET at Chase Center


The AI Model believes the Warriors will cover a 10.5-point spread with an eight-point home loss to the Thunder. That’s a pretty wide margin. Let’s back the Warriors at +10.5.

Don’t Sleep on the Warriors’ Defense!

The Golden State Warriors have held opponents to 112.6 points per 100 possessions. The defense has also held teams to a 54.1% effective field goal percentage and only 26.4% of offensive rebounds.

Ultimately, the Thunder are an electric team, but that comes from the defense, not the offense. The Thunder are just good at keeping turnovers down. After all, they have shot an effective field goal percentage of 55.4%, which ranks 11th in the NBA.

In addition, the Thunder have added just 25.7% of offensive rebounds. Oklahoma City won’t dominate on the offensive glass or even get to the foul line much.

Second Chances For The Warriors!

The Golden State Warriors won’t shoot it well, either. The Thunder rank No. 1 in the NBA in effective field goal percentage and have allowed just 104.8 points per 100 possessions.

That said, the Warriors have grabbed 30% of offensive rebounds, and the Thunder have allowed 30.2%. Golden State should be active on the offensive glass to earn more second chances.

That’ll keep them afloat throughout this game. Take the Warriors at +10.5.

NBA Pick: Warriors +10.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler

*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.

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