Tonight’s seven-game slate has some really intriguing matchups. Therefore, I asked the AI Model for its thoughts on all seven games and provided its best three bets for you to consider at the top-rated sportsbooks. All of the data and analytics are below.
Picks Summary
- Hawks vs. Utah Jazz Over 236.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- Celtics ML (-225) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)Â
- Heat +9.5 (-110) at Bet365
Atlanta Hawks vs. Utah Jazz
Tuesday, January 07, 2025 – 09:00 PM ET at Delta Center
The AI Model believes the Hawks and Jazz will combine for 237 points. However, Bet365 is carrying a total of just 236.5. The over is certainly the play in this one.
Utah Doesn’t Defend!
The Utah Jazz have allowed 118.4 points per 100 possessions this season, ranking 28th. While teams have shot a 55.3% effective field goal percentage against the Jazz, opponents have also turned the ball over just 11.6% of the time.
The Hawks should get some easy looks and limit turnovers pretty well. Don’t be shocked if the Hawks have some success on the offensive glass tonight, either.
Atlanta’s Wacky Defense
The Hawks have given up a 56.3% effective field goal percentage this season. That ranks 28th in the NBA.
The Jazz should get some quality looks in this game. However, they have also turned the ball over 18.6% of the time. Therefore, the Hawks could end up with a solid number of turnovers, leading to fastbreak points, which would also help the over
The Pick
I’m siding with the AI Model and riding the Over 236 here.
NBA Pick: Hawks vs. Utah Jazz Over 236.5 (-110) at Bet365
Boston Celtics vs. Denver Nuggets
Tuesday, January 07, 2025 – 10:00 PM ET at Ball Arena
Our AI Model thinks the Celtics claw out a 120-116 win on the road against the Nuggets. Even at -225, the model thinks the Celtics have some value on the moneyline.
Boston Will Have Many Great Possessions!
The Boston Celtics have already scored 121.5 points per 100 possessions this season. That ranks third in the NBA. In addition, the Celtics have also shot a 56.7% effective field goal percentage and have turned the ball over just 11.7% of the time.
Boston should be really good at protecting the ball, especially since the Nuggets have added just 13.9% of turnovers per game this season. Don’t expect the Celtics to have their way at the foul line. But other than that, the Celtics should be very efficient.
Boston’s Defense Can Limit Denver
The Nuggets are just as good of an offense as the Celtics. Maybe the Nuggets are even more well-rounded with their ability to add offensive rebounds and get to the foul line at a high rate.
The Celtics have limited teams to 110.6 points per 100 possessions and have allowed just a 15.8% free-throw rate, 26.6% of offensive rebounds and a defensive effective field goal percentage of 52.9%.
The Celtics should be able to keep Denver away from their typical averages.
The Pick
Even at -225, I’ll ride the Celtics on the moneyline.
NBA Pick: Celtics ML (-225) at Caesars Sportsbook
Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors
Tuesday, January 07, 2025 – 10:00 PM ET at Chase Center
The AI Model suggests the Heat will lose to the Warriors, 114-105. That’s a nine-point differential, but the Heat are +9.5. Backing the Heat against the spread is the most ideal spot here.
Are The Heat Better Without Jimmy Butler?
There’s been a lot of drama with the Miami Heat this season. The Heat are 17-17 and still fighting for a playoff spot. However, Jimmy Butler decided he no longer wanted to play for the Heat and expressed it to the media a week ago.
Because of this, the Heat suspended Butler for seven games and are now looking for a potential trade partner. Miami is now shorthanded. The Heat have also lost three consecutive games and are indeed not better without Butler.
That said, Miami was at least competitive last night against the Kings. The Heat began a long west-coast trip and only lost by five in double overtime to the Kings. Some will consider that loss deflating, but I think it will help boost morale as we head into tonight’s game against the Warriors.
Where’s The Offense?
For many years, the Golden State Warriors were known for being a powerhouse offense behind Steph Curry. Now, they’ve shot a 53.1% effective field goal percentage and rank 21st in points per 100 possessions this season.
Golden State has also struggled to get to the foul line and won’t have their way against the Heat in this one since the Heat have allowed just a 17% free throw rate this season on defense.
The Warriors are playing just as poorly as the Heat. There’s no reason Miami should be this big of an underdog.
The Pick
Let’s back the Heat at +9.5 here.
NBA Pick: Heat +9.5 (-110) at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
