We’ve got another solid NBA slate tonight. I reviewed each game and used the AI Model to find the three best bets on March 28. Let’s start the weekend strong at the top-rated sportsbooks!
Picks Summary
- Warriors/Pelicans Under 226 (-110)
- Knicks/Bucks Over 217.5 (-110)
- Jazz +17.5 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Golden State Warriors vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Friday, March 28, 2025 – 08:00 PM EDT at Smoothie King Center
The AI Model predicts the Warriors and Pelicans will combine for 225 points. However, the total is stuck at 226. That means there’s value on the Under.
Can The Pelicans Keep The Warriors Off The Foul Line?
The New Orleans Pelicans have limited teams to 120.2 points per 100 possessions, which is the worst rate in the NBA. However, the Warriors have only scored 114.1 points per 100 possessions and have shot an effective field goal percentage of 53.5%.
Golden State can be counted on for second chances. But the Warriors aren’t aggressive enough and rarely get to the foul line. That’ll hurt them since the Pelicans have allowed just an 18.5 free throw rate.
You Can’t Trust New Orleans!
The New Orleans Pelicans have scored only 111 points per 100 possessions. They have shot a 52.2% effective field goal percentage and will face a Warriors defense that ranks inside the top 15 in four major categories.
The Warriors have limited teams to 27% of offensive rebounds, forcing 15.6% of turnovers. Teams have added just 112.4 points per 100 possessions.
The Pick
Let’s back the Under 226 in this game. The Pelicans can’t be trusted offensively, and they’d be needed for the total to get over.
NBA Pick: Warriors/Pelicans Under 226 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
New York Knicks vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Friday, March 28, 2025 – 08:00 PM EDT at Fiserv Forum
The AI Model suggests the Knicks and Bucks will combine for 219 points. However, the total is currently 217.5 at most sportsbooks. Therefore, you should consider the over in this spot.
The Knicks Won’t Turn It Over!
The New York Knicks have turned the ball over just 13% of the time. It’s the fourth-lowest in the MLB. Meanwhile, the Bucks have committed only 12.8% of turnovers per game this season. The Knicks should be able to minimize mistakes and take many shots.
Additionally, the Knicks have also scored 119.8 points per 100 possessions. That’s good for fifth in the NBA. The Knicks, even without Jalen Brunson, have a lot of scoring options, and that’ll benefit them down the stretch.
The Bucks Will Get Good Looks
The Bucks are without Damian Lillard. However, Milwaukee has still shot an effective field goal percentage of 56.8%.
The Knicks have allowed a 55.1% effective field goal percentage on defense, which isn’t very good. Plus, the Bucks, like the Knicks, have held turnovers to 13.2% per game this season. The Bucks won’t dominate the glass, but they’ll get shots to fall.
The Pick
Let’s back the Over 217.5 in this game.
NBA Pick: Knicks/Bucks Over 217.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Utah Jazz vs. Denver Nuggets
Friday, March 28, 2025 – 09:00 PM EDT at Ball Arena
The AI Model believes the Nuggets will dd a 14-point win over the Jazz tonight. However, Caesars Sportsbook has the Jazz at +17.5 against the spread. The Jazz still have NBA-level players on the squad, despite many injuries. Go with the Jazz at +17.5.
Denver Doesn’t Have Elite Defense!
The Jazz will be missing many pieces in tonight’s NBA game. However, the Nuggets still rank 24th in points per 100 possessions on defense.
Denver is weak at forcing turnovers, and Utah struggles the most with this. If the Jazz can keep turnovers down, they’ll take more shots, which should allow them to take more offensive rebounds and second chances.
The Nuggets Have Question Marks, Too!
Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun, Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray are all listed as questionable for the Denver Nuggets. I would not bet on the Nuggets at -17.5, knowing that all five of these guys could not play.
The Pick
Ride the Jazz at +17.5.
NBA Pick: Jazz +17.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
