There’s lots of value in tonight’s seven-game NBA slate. Therefore, I went to the AI Model and asked for the top three bets. Here’s what you should consider at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Thunder -9.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- Mavericks ML (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
- Jazz +9.5 (-115) at BetMGM (check our BetMGM Review)
Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Monday, March 03, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Paycom Center
The AI Model thinks the Thunder will add a ten-point win at home against the Rockets tonight. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is -9.5 against the spread and would cover with a ten-point win in this scenario. Consider Oklahoma City here.
Houston Will Brick A Lot!
The Houston Rockets are not known for taking high-quality shots. Instead, they have shot an effective field goal percentage of 51.5%, which ranks 28th in the NBA. In addition, the Thunder have limited teams to a 51.3% effective field goal percentage this year.
While the Rockets will add many offensive rebounds, the missed shots will hurt them down the stretch.
Can The Thunder Keep Turnovers Down?
The Oklahoma City Thunder rank No. 1 in the NBA in turnovers allowed this season. If the Thunder can keep turnovers down tonight, they’ll have more chances at scoring the basketball. That’ll only help against the Rockets, who have held teams to a 52.5% effective field goal percentage.
That said, the Thunder will likely have more possessions and more opportunities to score. They’ve shot much better from the field throughout the season and rank fourth in the NBA in points per 100 possessions.
The Pick
I’m rolling with the Thunder at -9.5 here.
NBA Pick: Thunder -9.5 (-110) at Bet365
Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas Mavericks
Monday, March 03, 2025 – 08:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center
The AI Model suggests the Mavericks will escape the Kings by one point. Meanwhile, Dallas is -105 and slight underdogs in tonight’s game. Pick up Dallas on the moneyline.
Domantas Sabonis Is Out!
The Kings won’t have Domantas Sabonis for the time being. He’s out with a hamstring injury that he sustained last time out.
Sabonis is arguably the Kings’ best player. His absence will hurt on both ends of the floor. Usually, the Kings take advantage on the offensive glass, but without Sabonis, it might become more complicated.
Dallas Has Injured Players Too, But…
The Dallas Mavericks have five forwards and centers out with injuries, including Anthony Davis.
Still, Kyrie Irving has done well leading this group. At the end of the day, the Mavericks are still 8th in the NBA in points per 100 possessions. They’ll get plenty of quality looks against the Kings, who have allowed a 55.3% effective field goal percentage.
Plus, the Mavericks should see the foul line more frequently, knowing the Kings have allowed a 20 free throw rate this season.
The Pick
I’m with the AI Model and will take the Mavericks on the moneyline.
NBA Pick: Mavericks ML (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook
Detroit Pistons vs. Utah Jazz
Monday, March 03, 2025 – 09:00 PM ET at Delta Center
The AI Model predicts the Pistons will only earn a 120-112 win over the Jazz tonight. Since the Jazz are +9.5 against the spread, Utah is certainly the valuable play tonight, especially at home.
The Pistons Won’t Add Extra Points From The Line!
The Detroit Pistons have impressed this season. Their offense has scored 114.3 points per 100 possessions, which is close to the average. That said, the Pistons have added 29.8% of offensive rebounds, which is in the top ten.
It’s just unlikely the Pistons will dominate the glass against a Utah team that has allowed 27.8% of offensive rebounds per game. In addition, the Pistons have struggled to get to the foul line this season and will battle a Jazz unit that has kept teams to an 18.8 free throw rate. The Pistons won’t add extra points from the foul line.
The Jazz Have a Better Chance!
The Utah Jazz have a lower effective field goal percentage and points per 100 possessions. However, as long as turnovers stay down, the Jazz should be fine.
After all, the Jazz have added 30.8% offensive rebounds and a 19.8% free-throw rate. These are two areas where they can beat the Pistons. The little things matter.
The Pick
Let’s roll with the Jazz at +9.5.
NBA Pick: Jazz +9.5 (-115) at BetMGM
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
