It’s the second day of the NBA Cup. We’ve got 12 games slated to tip off tonight, with every game meaning just a little more than your regular NBA season matchups. I went to the AI Model and asked for its favorite three bets of the night. Here’s what it likes.
Picks Summary
- Suns +8.5 (-110)
- Grizzlies-Warriors Under 236 (-110)
- Kings +2 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Phoenix Suns vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Friday, November 15, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Paycom Center
The AI Model believes the Suns will cover an 8.5-point spread at Caesars with a 118-111 loss. While a loss isn’t encouraging, a seven-point loss is, especially since Caesars is giving the Suns 8.5 points. Phoenix has value.
Many Players Listed Out
The Oklahoma City Thunder will play without Alex Caruso, Chet Holmgren, Jaylin Williams, and Isaiah Hartenstein. Because of this, the Thunder have elected to play small ball and start games without a big man. That won’t help defensively against teams like the Suns.
Meanwhile, the Suns won’t have Kevin Durant or Bradley Beal. It’s also unclear if we’ll get Grayson Allen or Jusuf Nurkic in this game.
Both teams have a long laundry list of injuries. Both teams have little depth. It only makes sense to back the underdog.
Phoenix’s Success On The Glass
The Phoenix Suns have allowed just 25.3% of offensive rebounds and have allowed an 18.1 free throw rate. They do the little things well on the defensive end.
The Suns won’t allow second chances or give freebies at the line. That’s why it’ll be so difficult for the Thunder to add a large margin of victory against the Suns.
I’m on the Suns at +8.5. Thank the AI Model when it hits.
NBA Pick: Suns +8.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors
Friday, November 15, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Chase Center
Our AI Model thinks the Warriors and Grizzlies will add just 235 points in this game. However, Caesars has a total sitting at 236. That means the Under is the play in this one.
Golden State Will Slow Down Memphis
The Memphis Grizzlies have scored 119 points per 100 possessions. They’ve also added a 56.2% effective field goal percentage and 33.7% of offensive rebounds. This is an elite offense, even without some of its best players.
That said, the Warriors have held teams to 108.7 points per 100 possessions and have allowed a 51% effective field goal percentage. Golden State should add plenty of turnovers and limit the Grizzlies from the field.
Memphis Also Ranks Top 5 Defensively
The Memphis Grizzlies are also a top-five defense heading into tonight’s game. The Grizzlies have held teams to 109.8 points per 100 possessions and have allowed just a 52.3% effective field goal percentage.
The Grizzlies foul at a somewhat high rate. However, the Warriors aren’t very aggressive at getting to the foul line, which fits well for the Grizzlies.
Both defenses should do enough to keep this game Under the total.
NBA Pick: Under 236 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Sacramento Kings
Friday, November 15, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Golden 1 Center
The AI Model recommends the Kings at +2 tonight. The Kings are already 2-point underdogs, but the Model believes Sacramento will win by two points outright. That’s very good value.
Turnover Central
The Minnesota Timberwolves have turned the ball over 16.7% of the time, which is one reason the offense hasn’t been as efficient as expected this season.
The Timberwolves are in the top 15 in all other offensive categories. But when you turn the ball over as much as they do, you don’t get enough shot attempts. Therefore, the Timberwolves are 6-6 after losing three consecutive games.
Sacramento Can Win The Game At The Foul Line
The Kings are top-10 in every offensive category but offensive rebounding. Don’t expect Sacramento to earn many second-chance points. However, the Kings have a top-five free-throw rate number.
They’ll likely get to the foul line way more and earn points at the foul line consistently. That’s an area that the Timberwolves likely won’t match.
In addition, the Kings won’t turn the ball over much. They’ll likely get more shots up and more foul shots. That’s a recipe for success.
Let’s back the Kings at +2 per the AI Model.
NBA Pick: Kings +2 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
