Despite the NFL on the horizon, there are still ten games in the NBA. I went to the AI Model looking for some value. Here are three bets you’ll want to think about at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Bulls +4.5 (-110)Â
- Mavericks +5 (-110)
- Jazz/Clippers Over 219.5 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)Â
Houston Rockets vs. Chicago Bulls
Sunday, November 17, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at United Center
The AI Model believes the Bulls will only lose to the Rockets, 118-116. Yet, the Bulls are 4.5-point underdogs. Backing the Bulls against the spread is the way to go.
Houston Can’t Dominate Offensive Glass
The Houston Rockets have scored 115 points per 100 possessions this season. That’s 15th in the NBA. It’s not a bad rate. However, they’ve increased this rate by dominating the offensive glass.
The Rockets have earned 35.3% of offensive rebounds per game. Yet, they’re facing a Chicago defense that has held teams to 23.9% of offensive rebounds. Houston can’t dominate the offensive glass like they normally do. That’ll hurt them in this game.
Can Chicago Shoot Better at Home?
Chicago has already hit a 55.5% effective field goal percentage this season. That’s a solid top-10 rate in the NBA.
At home, there’s a good chance the Bulls out-shoot the Rockets. Chicago won’t see many opportunities for second chances on the offensive glass but should get to the foul line more in this one.
The Pick
Let’s ride with the home underdog against the spread. I’m with the AI Model.
NBA Pick: Bulls +4.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Sunday, November 17, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Paycom Center
Our AI Model thinks the Mavericks will keep things tight with the Thunder, only losing 117-113. That’s a four-point deficit, but Caesars Sportsbook has the Mavericks at +5. Take it!
Can OKC Sustain Defensive Success?
The Oklahoma City Thunder are No. 1 in points per 100 possessions allowed on defense. They’ve held teams to a 48.6% effective field goal percentage and have forced 19.6% of turnovers.
However, it’s unlikely the Thunder can hold onto these numbers when facing Dallas. After all, Dallas is a top-ten offense and has rarely turned the ball over while hitting a 55.8% effective field goal percentage. In addition, the Thunder have allowed 32% of offensive rebounds and still foul at an above-average rate, which isn’t good.
The Mavericks will be able to get to the foul line more often and earn more offensive rebounds. If they’re able to continue to limit turnovers, they’ll be in this game throughout the entirety of it.
Can The Thunder Find Good Shots?
The Oklahoma City Thunder have only shot a 54.2% effective field goal percentage. That’s 17th in the NBA.
I point this out because the Mavericks have held opponents to a 52.1% effective field goal percentage. That’s good for fourth in the NBA. Dallas should be able to hold off the Thunder by forcing tough shots and winning the foul-shooting battle.
The Pick
Dallas can win on the road outright. But we’ll play it safe and take the Mavericks at +5.
NBA Pick: Mavericks +5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Utah Jazz vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Sunday, November 17, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Intuit Dome
The AI Model recommends the Over 219.5 since it believes the Jazz and Clippers will add 222 points in tonight’s game. That’s nearly a three-point difference.
The Jazz Are Coming Around
Ultimately, the Utah Jazz are playing high-scoring games. They’ve closed a couple out and have lost a couple. But they’re playing well enough to stick around at least and score points.
The Jazz have turned the ball over at a very high rate. That will need to stop. However, Utah is also No. 1 in free throw rate and 6th in the NBA in offensive rebounding. While the offensive rebounds might be limited against the Clippers, the foul shooting probably won’t.
Adding points when the clock stops is the best way to beat the total.
Los Angeles Could Have A Night
The Los Angeles Clippers have only scored 110.9 points per 100 possessions and have turned the ball over at a high rate. However, the Jazz have allowed 119.8 points per 100 possessions and have become one of the worst defenses in the NBA.
Utah has allowed a 56.3% effective field goal percentage and has given up more than 30% of offensive rebounds. The Clippers should capitalize in those areas and score at a reasonably high rate.
The Pick
Let’s ride with the AI Model and back the Over 219.5.
NBA Pick: Jazz/Clippers Over 219.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
