With eight games on the NBA slate, there’s plenty of value on the NBA board. More importantly, seven of the eight games have spreads that are within five points. We should have some exciting action tonight. Therefore, I went to the AI Model, asked for its best three bets, and shared them below.
Picks Summary
- Suns +2.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Kings -4.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Clippers +4.5 (-110) at Bet365
Orlando Magic vs. Phoenix Suns
Monday, November 18, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Footprint Center
The AI Model believes the Phoenix Suns will only lose to the Orlando Magic, 108-106 at home. However, the Suns are 2.5-point underdogs and would cover the spread with a two-point loss at home.
Is Phoenix OK?
The Phoenix Suns won’t have Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal tonight. Since Durant went down, the Suns have not been the same. This 9-5 Suns team has lost four of its last five games.
That said, Orlando’s offense is nothing to worry about. The Magic have scored just 109.4 points per 100 possessions, which is 25th in the NBA. Orlando is good at getting to the line, but the Suns are just as good at limiting foul-shot attempts.
The Suns should be fine defensively on their home court.
Suns Should Win The Foul-Shot Battle
The Orlando Magic have played very good defense this season. But with very good defense comes aggressive fouling.
In a potentially tight matchup, the Suns should see the foul line more often. They’ll be the ones adding points with the clocked stopped more.
I like the Suns to escape. Devin Booker will put on a show. Grab the Suns at +2.5.
NBA Pick: Suns +2.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Atlanta Hawks vs. Sacramento Kings
Monday, November 18, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Golden 1 Center
Our AI Model thinks the Kings will add a 120-115 victory over the Hawks tonight. Sacramento is just -4.5 against the spread via Caesars, proving the Kings are the play in tonight’s showdown.
Sacramento’s Sensational Defense
The Sacramento Kings rank in the top 14 in all major defensive categories. The Kings have held teams to 113.6 points per 100 possessions and allowed a 54.3% effective field goal percentage, with 15.3% turnovers, 27.1% offensive rebounds, and a free throw rate 19.4.
The Kings aren’t elite. However, they’re balanced on defense, which has helped them get above .500 through the first 14 games this season.
Sacramento can expect to add a lot of turnovers on defense, which should result in points the other way.
Atlanta’s Defense Has Struggled
The Atlanta defense has allowed teams to score 117.2 points per 100 possessions, which is only 22nd in the NBA.
Meanwhile, the Kings have scored 118.1 points per 100 possessions and have shot an effective field goal percentage of 56.2%. The Hawks are doomed, especially since Atlanta allows a 56.2% effective field goal percentage.
The Kings religiously get to the foul line and should see an uptick in offensive rebounds, with Atlanta allowing more than 30% of offensive rebounds per game.
I’m all over the Kings at -4.5, especially since they’re home.
NBA Pick: Kings -4.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Monday, November 18, 2024 – 10:30 PM ET at Intuit Dome
The AI Model recommends the Clippers at +4.5 since it believes they will only lose by two points at home. You can find the Clippers at +4.5 via Bet365 right now.
Can The Clippers Stop Red-Hot Warriors?
The Golden State Warriors have scored 117.5 points per 100 possessions. They’ve shot a 55.8% effective field goal percentage and have dragged down 31.4% of offensive rebounds. All of that is great.
However, the Clippers have held teams to 112 points per 100 possessions. They’ve also limited opponents to 25.1% of offensive rebounds. While Golden State will still get good looks, don’t expect them to earn many second chances for offensive rebounds. That won’t happen against the Clippers.
The Clippers Do The Little Things Well
The Los Angeles Clippers will not get the best looks against the Warriors—that’s a given. However, the Clippers are more aggressive, which is a good thing.
The Clippers should ultimately add more offensive rebounds and score more foul shots with the time stopped. After all, the Warriors have allowed 30% of offensive rebounds and a 21.3 free-throw rate.
Los Angeles should be able to take advantage of this.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Clippers won outright. Take the Clippers at +4.5 and ride with the AI Model.
NBA Pick: Clippers +4.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
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