There are only four games on tonight’s NBA slate. But that’s fine with me! I went to the AI Model to look for its favorite three bets for tonight and posted them below before heading to the top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Raptors +7 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- Jazz +2.5 (-110) at Bet365
- Magic/Lakers Over 217 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (visit our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Toronto Raptors
Thursday, November 21, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena
The AI Model believes the Timberwolves will add a 116-110 win over the Raptors on the road tonight. However, the Raptors are +7. Toronto has the value per our Model.
Toronto Can Get Stops
The Minnesota Timberwolves have been tough to guard this season. The offense ranks 11th in points per 100 possessions and has shot a 56.5% effective field goal percentage. The Timberwolves are also above-average at getting to the foul line and should get there a lot in tonight’s game.
That said, the Raptors have limited teams to a 541.% effective field goal percentage. Toronto, at home, should be able to keep Minnesota below its typical shooting averages. If the Raptors can do that, they’ll be in good shape tonight.
Winning Second Chances
Toronto’s offense doesn’t compare to Minnesota’s. That’s why the Timberwolves are hefty favorites on the road tonight.
However, the Raptors are No. 1 in the NBA in offensive rebounds. These offensive rebounds will result in more second chances and more shots: the more shots, the more chance of the ball going through the net. It’s the main reason why Toronto has a chance to knock off the Timberwolves tonight.
The Pick
The AI Model and I will play it safe. Just take the Raptors at +7.
NBA Pick: Raptors +7 (-110) at Bet365
Utah Jazz vs. San Antonio Spurs
Thursday, November 21, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Frost Bank Center
Our AI Model thinks the Jazz will only lose to the Spurs, 113-111. That said, Bet365 has the Jazz at +2.5. If that result happened, the Jazz would cover the two-point loss with that extra 0.5. Take the Jazz.
The Jazz Can Attack The Glass
The Utah Jazz have scored only 109.6 points per 100 possessions. They’ve shot poorly from the field and turned the ball over more than 18% of the time.
However, the Spurs aren’t known for adding a high rate of turnovers and have still allowed 113.8 points per 100 possessions. San Antonio should limit the Jazz from playing on the field. However, the Jazz should be able to grab offensive rebounds and more second chances.
Will The Spurs Get To The Foul Line Enough?
The San Antonio Spurs also aren’t the best offense. This team scored just 111.8 points per 100 possessions. They’ll have more potential against the Utah defense. However, San Antonio finds most of their success by getting to the foul line.
That won’t happen often against the Jazz, who have allowed an 18.7 free throw rate. It’s why the Jazz have a chance to win this game outright potentially.
The Pick
Grab the Jazz at +2.5.
NBA Pick: Jazz +2.5 (-110) at Bet365
Orlando Magic vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Thursday, November 21, 2024 – 10:30 PM ET at Crypto.com Arena
The AI Model recommends the Over 217 in tonight’s game. After all, the model believes the Lakers and Magic will combine for 219 points, which gives us two points to spare.
A Better Matchup For Orlando
The Magic’s offense isn’t the most emphatic in the NBA. They’ve only scored 109.6 points per 100 possessions and have shot a 51.6% effective field goal percentage.
They’ll face a Lakers defense that has allowed 116.8 points per 100 possessions. Los Angeles has also allowed a 54.8% effective field goal percentage and 30.2% of offensive rebounds.
This is a good spot for the Magic to perform better on offense and above their typical averages.
Lots Of Foul Shots are Coming
The Lakers are an elite offense playing an elite defense. That said, the Magic have still allowed a 20.4 free throw rate, which is 19th in the NBA.
Orlando can be very aggressive defensively. It works. But it might not be as good against the Lakers, especially since the Lakers are the NBA’s best at getting to the foul line.
The Pick
Let’s ride with the AI Model and back the Over 217. This isn’t a super high number, and neither offense has enough in the tank to get over it.
NBA Pick: Magic/Lakers Over 217 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
