It’s not the most exciting slate in the NBA. However, there are still six games with plenty of value. Therefore, I asked the AI Model for its best bets and attacked some. I’ll share it all below before heading to the top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Mavericks/Heat Over 222 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
- Raptors +12 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- Kings -8.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Dallas Mavericks vs. Miami Heat
Sunday, November 24, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at Kaseya Center
The AI Mode believes the Heat and Mavericks will combine for 223 points. However, you can find the total at 222. That’s the play.
Dallas Can Still Produce Without Doncic
The Dallas Mavericks are still without Luka Doncic. However, they earned a 123-120 win over the Nuggets last time out. Dallas has won four consecutive games and scored at least 121 in three straight.
They’ve also hit a 56% effective field goal percentage and have added just 2.7% of turnovers. The Mavericks should shoot well, especially knowing the Heat have allowed a 55.1% effective field goal percentage.
It’s not even clear if Jimmy Butler will play tonight.
Plenty of Possessions for Miami!
Just like Dallas, the Miami Heat don’t turn the ball over often, which allows them to take more shots. Even if the field goal percentage isn’t super high, the Heat will still have more shots, resulting in more points. The Heat are also good at getting to the foul line. They’ve added a 20.1 free throw rate, and the Mavericks have allowed a 21.1 free throw rate.
Miami might not shoot a higher field goal percentage, but the free throws with time stopped should help the Heat score at a good rate.
The Pick
Grab the Over and thank the AI Model when it hits.
NBA Pick: Mavericks/Heat Over 222 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Toronto Raptors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Sunday, November 24, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
Our AI Model thinks the Cavaliers will defeat the Raptors 123-112. However, the Raptors are currently +12 against the spread. That would be enough to cover an 11-point loss. Take the Raptors on the road.
Toronto Can Eat On The Glass
The Toronto Raptors are currently No. 1 in the NBA in offensive rebounding. Although they don’t shoot the ball well, they’re getting second chances and still have an above-average free-throw rate that can’t be ignored.
Meanwhile, Cleveland has been great at getting stops. They’re also not fouling a lot. Yet, it’s still likely the Raptors will earn enough second chances to stay in this game.
Can The Raptors Defend Well Enough?
Toronto has earned below-average turnovers and ranks in the bottom ten in defensive rebounding and free throw rate.
That said, the Cavaliers aren’t getting to the foul line much and haven’t dominated the glass. They’re just limiting turnovers and shooting the ball well. However, the Raptors have still held teams to a 53.8% effective field goal percentage. If the Raptors can do that to the Cavaliers, they’ll survive and at least cover.
The Pick
Take the Raptors at +12 with the AI Model.
NBA Pick: Raptors +12 (-110) at Bet365
Brooklyn Nets vs. Sacramento Kings
Sunday, November 24, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Golden 1 Center
The AI Model thinks the Kings will cover an 8.5-point spread with a nine-point win at home against the Nets. Therefore, back the Kings.
A Tough Road Game For Brooklyn
The Brooklyn Nets have added 115.5 points per 100 possessions. That’s good for 9th in the NBA. They’ve shot a 55.5% effective field goal percentage and have an average free throw rate of 20.
However, they’re taking on a Kings team that has held opponents to 112.9 points per 100 possessions. The Kings are at least in the top 15 in every major defensive category. The one that stands out the most is offensive rebounding. The Kings have allowed just 26.5% of offensive rebounds per game, while the Nets have earned only 25.7%.
Kings Will Shoot Better
Not only are the Kings the home team, but they’re also analytically better from the field. The Kings have scored 115.9 points per 100 possessions and have nailed a 55.4% effective field goal percentage.
In addition, the Kings get to the foul line at a very high rate, and the Nets foul teams at a very high rate.
The Pick
I’m all in on the Kings to earn a massive victory.
NBA Pick: Kings -8.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
