There’s a monster slate in the NBA after an off-day yesterday. Let’s get back on the grind. I’ve reviewed the AI Model’s picks for the NBA and decided on my top three favorite bets, with the best NBA odds we could find at top sportsbooks.
And don’t forget to check out our YouTube channel for more betting advice on the Knicks vs. Hawks and Heat vs. Suns games!
Let’s get right to it!
Picks Summary
- Heat-Suns Over 221.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Raptors +10.5 (-110) at Bet365
- Clippers -1.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Miami Heat vs. Phoenix Suns
Wednesday, November 06, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at FootPrint Center
The AI Model believes the Miami Heat and Phoenix Suns will combine for 223 points. However, at Caesars, you’ll find a total of just 221.5 points. That means the AI Model likes the Over in this matchup.
Limited Turnovers For Miami
It typically means more shots when teams don’t turn the ball over. The more shots you get up, the better chance a team has to score.
Miami isn’t shooting a high effective field goal percentage. But the Heat are also not turning the ball over and are getting to the foul line at a top-ten rate in the NBA. That should help Miami put points on the board in tonight’s game against the Suns.
After all, the Suns have earned just 12.8% of turnovers themselves. Phoenix will be better on the glass and limit foul shots. But the turnover battle will be in Miami’s favor.
Phoenix Can Be Better
The Phoenix Suns have a lot of offensive talent. However, despite that offensive talent, the Suns have only scored 113.2 points per 100 possessions.
The Suns are usually ineffective on the offensive glass, earning only 21% of offensive rebounds. But that should change in this specific game.
The Heat have allowed 31.6% of offensive rebounds, so we can expect more second chances from the Suns. In addition, the Suns have shot a 56.5% effective field goal percentage and are one of the best teams at getting to the foul line.
With Miami’s ability to keep turnovers down and Phoenix’s chances of more offensive rebounds, I’ll ride with the Over and rock with the AI model.
NBA Pick: Over 221.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Toronto Raptors vs. Sacramento Kings
Wednesday, November 06, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Golden 1 Center
Our AI Model thinks Toronto will lose to Sacramento 124-114. However, you can find the Raptors at +10.5 at Bet365. The AI Model gives the Raptors a slight edge against the spread.
Give Toronto Credit
Even without Scottie Barnes for the time being, the Raptors have scored 114.2 points per 100 possessions. The squad has also earned 36.9% of offensive rebounds and an average free-throw rate that should shine in tonight’s game.
The Raptors will need to limit turnovers against the Kings. If they can do that, they’ll be able to stay in this game easily on the offensive end.
Sacramento Will Still Win
The Kings will win tonight’s game. The offense has been on point all season long. However, the lack of offensive rebounds will still keep the Raptors in this game throughout.
Toronto is still a top-15 offense, and they will likely get more opportunities from the floor because of their dominant offensive rebounding.
Toronto shouldn’t be a 10.5-point underdog. Even the AI Model knows that.
NBA Pick: Raptors +10.5 (-110) at Bet365
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Wednesday, November 06, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Intuit Dome
The AI Model thinks the Clippers will win by two points, 111-109. However, there’s a 1-.5 hanging for the Clippers at Caesars. That’s enough value to consider Los Angeles in tonight’s matchup.
Clippers Can Earn Second-Chances
The Los Angeles Clippers’ offense hasn’t been the best this season. However, the offense has still grabbed nearly 30% of offensive rebounds and should at least have more high-quality shots in tonight’s game.
After all, the 76ers have allowed a 57.7% effective field goal percentage and have just one win in two weeks.
Los Angeles Has Improved Defensively
The Clippers’ goal this season was to improve their defense. So far, it’s worked. They have allowed only 110.6 points per 100 possessions and 23.4% of offensive rebounds.
Los Angeles will dominate the glass on both sides of the ball. This is also important since the 76ers have shot an effective field goal percentage of just 49.5% this season. That’s a lot of misses that won’t be rebounded.
Take the Clippers at -1.5 (-110) per the AI Model.
NBA Pick: Clippers -1.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
