We’ve got a massive slate in the NBA tonight, including 11 games. I went to the AI Model to find its favorite three bets of the night.
I’ve listed them below and given some analysis for each bet that you’ll want to read before heading to the top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Bucks +10 (-110)
- Spurs ML (+125)
- Lakers +3.5 (-110)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics
Monday, October 28, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at TD Garden
The AI Model believes the Boston Celtics will win 121-112 over the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. However, you can get the Bucks at +10. While the Celtics are in cruise control, the Bucks are a team that can certainly stick around with the Celtics, thanks to Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard.
Milwaukee Can Stick With Boston
Not many teams can go toe-to-toe with the reigning and defending champions. However, the Bucks have still scored 113.6 points per 100 possessions, thanks to a 57.3% effective field goal percentage.
The Bucks should limit turnovers fairly well in this game and should still get to the foul line at an above-average rate. In addition, Boston has allowed a 56.1% effective field goal percentage defensively. That’s 23rd in the NBA. So, there are areas where the Celtics struggle defensively.
Boston’s Hot Shooting Will Cool Off
The Boston Celtics are super hot from the field, scoring a 64.3% effective field goal percentage. They’ve done well limiting turnovers and are average on the offensive glass. However, the Celtics only have ranked 25th in free throw rate.
When shots don’t fall and the offensive rebounds aren’t there, the Celtics could struggle to add points on the board because they’re not getting to the foul line often. The Celtics are more than happy shooting the ball from the perimeter. They’re not aggressive. Eventually, that’ll backfire.
The Pick
Let’s ride with the AI Model and take the Bucks at +10.
NBA Pick: Bucks +10 (-110) at Bet365
Houston Rockets vs. San Antonio Spurs
Monday, October 28, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Frost Bank Center
Our AI Model believes the Spurs will earn a 112-111 victory as home underdogs tonight against the Rockets. The Spurs are projected to win via the AI Model, but Bet365 is carrying them at +125. That’s some crazy value!
Houston’s Poor Shooting
The Houston Rockets have scored 114.8 points per 100 possessions. That’s above average in the NBA. However, it could be so much better. The Rockets have only shot a 48.6% effective field goal percentage and rarely get to the foul line.
Meanwhile, San Antonio has held opponents to a 51.1% effective field goal percentage and has allowed just a 17% free throw rate. The Spurs should defend well tonight at home.
More Freebies For San Antonio
The Spurs aren’t shooting the ball at a high percentage and might turn the ball over. However, they’ll likely earn more foul shots and have legitimate success on the offensive glass.
The Rockets have allowed 34.5% of offensive rebounds per game this season and have given up a 25.3 free throw rate. These are the two areas where San Antonio can attack.
The Pick
I’m on the Spurs at +125.
NBA Pick: Spurs ML (+125) at Bet365
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Phoenix Suns
Monday, October 28, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Footprint Center
The AI Model thinks the Lakers can stick around with the Suns. It has the Lakers losing 116-113. However, at Bet365, you can find the Lakers at +3.5. There’s value in the Lakers against the spread tonight. With Los Angeles at 3-0 and underdogs, I’ll happily back the Lakers.
Can The Lakers Beat The Suns a Second Time?
The Lakers already defeated the Suns 123-116 earlier this season. Anthony Davis scored 35 points and shot 11-for-18 from the floor in the win.
The Lakers have scored 120.1 points per 100 possessions throughout the season and are above average in all major offensive categories. Los Angeles should get to the foul line regularly and shoot at a high percentage against the Suns.
Phoenix WIll Have No Success On Offensive Glass
The Suns have shot an effective field goal percentage of 58.6%. That’s a terrific percentage and should continue against the Lakers.
However, the Suns have only earned 17.5% of offensive rebounds. That’s where they’ll lose the battle to the Lakers. The Suns will struggle to earn second-chance points, which could be the difference in this game.
The Pick
I’ll back the Lakers at +3.5 with the AI Model.
NBA Pick: Lakers +3.5 (-110) at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
