After a monster slate yesterday, we’re left with only four games on the NBA schedule tonight. Still, all four games have spreads of no higher than 5.5. There should be some tight, enjoyable games in the NBA.
Therefore, I looked through the AI Model’s projections and found the top three bets you should consider at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Mavericks/Timberwolves Over 222.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
- Jazz +6 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- Warriors ML (+122) at Caesars Sportsbook
Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Tuesday, October 29, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Target Center
The AI model believes the Mavericks and Timberwolves will score 225 points tonight. With the Over set at 222.5, the Over is the play in this one.
Dallas Doesn’t Turn The Ball Over
The best thing you can do as an offense is not turn the ball over. That just means added possessions to shoot shots and score points.
Dallas has turned the ball over 10.5% of the time this season, while the Timberwolves have earned just 12.2% of turnovers. With few turnovers, expect the Mavericks to find success shooting the basketball, even with a lower field goal percentage.
Fouls Are Still High For The Mavericks
The Mavericks have given up a 27.3 free throw rate to teams this season. That’s 26th in the NBA. Dallas has also allowed 29.7% of offensive rebounds. That’s about average, but it is absolutely an area that Minnesota can exploit.
With more second chances and many foul-shot attempts, look for Minnesota to keep this game close with the Mavericks.
The Pick
The Over 222.5 is the play per our AI Model. Both teams have paths that could help earn points at a high rate.
NBA Pick: Mavericks/Timberwolves Over 222.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Sacramento Kings vs. Utah Jazz
Tuesday, October 29, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Delta Center
Our AI Model believes the Jazz will lose 120-115 over the Kings tonight. Utah might be 0-3, but the Jazz won’t finish without a win this season. They’re due. That said, Bet365 is carrying a +6 when the Jazz are only expected to lose by five. There’s value in the Jazz.
Sacramento’s Hot Shooting Hasn’t Even Been Enough
The Sacramento Kings have scored 116.8 points per 100 possessions and have shot a 55.9% effective field goal percentage. Yet, the Kings are still 1-2 despite having one of the hottest starts offensively this season.
Imagine what will happen when the Kings start to have off games, especially on the road. Sacramento has earned 18.5% of offensive rebounds and won’t get many second chances on off-nights.
Tonight could be a game where the Kings struggle to get more buckets.
Utah Will Have More Success On The Glass
The Utah Jazz are much more efficient on the offensive glass. They’ll earn more second chances and likely take more shot attempts. In addition, the Jazz rank 4th in free throw rate and will likely add more attempts and makes from the foul line.
The Jazz haven’t shot the ball very well. But against the Kings, getting open looks should be easier.
The Pick
Thanks to the AI Model, I’m on the Jazz +6.
NBA Pick: Jazz +6 (-110) at Bet365
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Golden State Warriors
Tuesday, October 29, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Chase Center
The AI Model thinks the Warriors will escape the Pelicans 111-110. You can find Golden State at +122, which is clearly a valuable play if the model likes the Warriors to win outright.
Can Warriors Sustain Success Without Steph Curry?
Maybe the offense for the Warriors falls apart a bit. However, the defense should have no issues.
After all, the Golden State defense has held opponents to 96.6 points per 100 possessions and has given up just a 44.3% effective field goal percentage. Beyond that, Golden State has earned more than 18% of turnovers and has held teams to a 22.3 free throw rate.
The defense is still elite, with or without Stephen Curry.
The Pelicans Will Be Outworked On The Glass
New Orleans might stay in the turnover battle, and the Pelicans might even get more foul shots. However, the Warriors will dominate the offensive glass, knowing the Pelicans have allowed 34% of offensive rebounds per game this season.
New Orleans has been dreadful on the glass, while the Warriors have earned 34.9% of offensive rebounds this season. That’s where the Warriors will get the job done offensively.
The Pick
Stick with the model and back the Warriors at +122.
NBA Pick: Warriors ML (+122) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
