Although two games in California were postponed, there are still five games on tonight’s NBA slate. While the NFL games are more intriguing, don’t forget about the NBA. There’s some value on the board according to our AI Model.
Picks Summary
- Pistons -4.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Memphis-Minnesota Over 230.5 (-110) at Bet365
- Blazers +3.5 (-110) at Bet365
Toronto Raptors vs. Detroit Pistons
Saturday, January 11, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena
The AI Model suggests the Pistons will win by seven points tonight against the Raptors at home. Detroit is just -4.5 against the spread at Caesars, so consider the Pistons in this spot.
Toronto Keeps Losing!
The Toronto Raptors have lost four straight games. The offense has scored no more than 104 in three of those four matchups, while the defense has allowed at least 128 in two.
The Raptors’ offense is below average, scoring 110.8 points per 100 possessions. They are only good on the glass but will face a Pistons defense that ranks sixth in defensive rebounding.
The Pistons Are Actually Good?
The Detroit Pistons are 19-19 and at .500. The team planned to tank for another year, but now the front office has made some decisions.
Detroit lost Jaden Ivey for the year and could use some reinforcement. It’ll be interesting to see if they do anything to bolster this team by the deadline.
That said, Toronto ranks 28th in points per 100 possessions. The Raptors are ultimately one of the worst teams in the NBA, especially on defense. Cade Cunningham and the Pistons should dominate the glass and get good looks.
That’ll be enough to escape and cover. Grab the Pistons at -4.5.
NBA Pick: Pistons -4.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Saturday, January 11, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Target Center
Our AI Model thinks Minnesota and Memphis will score 231 points combined in tonight’s showdown. The total is set at 230.5 at Bet365, which means the over has some slight value.
Memphis’ Top Five Offense
The Memphis Grizzlies have scored 117.7 points per 100 possessions. That ranks fifth in the NBA. Ultimately, the Grizzlies have also hit a 56% effective field goal percentage, bringing down 32.4% of offensive rebounds.
It won’t be easy against Minnesota. The Timberwolves are also a quality defense. But as long as Memphis continues to succeed on the offensive glass and get good looks, they’ll maintain their averages against the Timberwolves.
The Foul Line Will Be Critical For Minnesota
The Minnesota Timberwolves are an average offense. They’re good sometimes and poor others. While they’re inconsistent with much, they’ll likely find more success at the foul line.
The Grizzlies have allowed a 20.5 free-throw rate, which ranks 23rd in the NBA. If Minnesota can add points at the foul line at a high rate, the Timberwolves will help push this game over.
I’m with the AI Model and will back the Over 230.5.
NBA Pick: Over 230.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Miami Heat vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Saturday, January 11, 2025 – 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center
The AI Model thinks the Blazers will only lose to the Heat, 111-110. The Blazers are 3.5-point underdogs at home but would cover against the spread in a 111-110 finish. Take Portland against the spread here.
Can Portland Survive Bad Defense?
The Portland Trail Blazers are certainly not known for their defense. They’ve allowed 118 points per 100 possessions and have given up a 55.6% effective field goal percentage.
They’re good at forcing turnovers but ultimately struggle on the defensive glass and still foul at a high rate.
That said, Portland has won two of their last four games and has held two opponents to no more than 102 points. The Blazers were also on a long road trip and will finally be home tonight. That should help keep things in sync. Don’t expect Portland to play lockdown defense, but expect some improvements.
The Blazers Need To Dominate The Glass
The Portland Trail Blazers don’t rank very well offensively, either. Yet, the Blazers have earned 30.6% of offensive rebounds. The more second chances, the better the Blazers will be.
Ultimately, the Heat have been having lots of drama this season, especially with Jimmy Butler wanting out. Miami won its last two games, but they’re ultimately a .500 team without Butler.
If Portland dominates the glass, they’ll have a chance at winning outright. Take the Blazers at +3.5 here.
NBA Pick: Blazers +3.5 (-110) at Bet365
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