There are seven games on tonight’s NBA slate. We’ve got a bunch of matchups with spreads in the double digits, so there will be some fascinating games down the stretch.
I asked the AI Model’s thoughts on a few games and wrote about the projections below. Here are the best three bets on tonight’s NBA slate. Don’t miss out on any action at the top-rated sportsbooks!
Picks Summary
- Kings-Bucks Over 228.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- Nuggets-Mavericks Over 232.5 (-110) at Bet365
- Nets-Trail Blazers Over 217.5 (-110) at Bet365
Sacramento Kings vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Tuesday, January 14, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum
The AI Model suggests the Bucks and Kings will score 230 points in tonight’s matchup. Meanwhile, the total for this game is stuck at 228.5 via Bet365.
The Kings Will Hold Onto the Ball!
There are five important factors and stats on offense. One of the five is turnovers. Ultimately, the Kings are terrific at limiting them on offense, and the Bucks are really bad at forcing them on defense.
If the Kings don’t turn the ball over often, they’ll have ample opportunity to take shots. The more shots, the more points, even if the field goal percentage isn’t super high.
The Kings have scored 115.8 points per 100 possessions and rank at least 15th in all five major categories. They’re good enough offensively to put up a reasonable amount of points.
The Bucks Will Get Open Looks
You can’t count on Milwaukee to add a bunch of offensive rebounds. The Bucks have grabbed only 21.8% of offensive rebounds, and the Kings have allowed just 25% of offensive rebounds on the defensive end.
The second chances won’t be there, but the shot-making should be. The Bucks rank third in the NBA in effective field goal percentage and will face a Kings defense that has allowed a 54.9% effective field goal percentage.
The Bucks should hit a lot of shots tonight. We’ll take a chance with the Over 228.5 in this game. Thank the AI Model when it hits.
NBA Pick: Over 228.5 (-110) at Bet365
Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks
Tuesday, January 14, 2024 – 09:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center
Our AI Model believes the Nuggets will win 118-115 against the Mavericks on the road tonight. In this scenario, these two teams would combine for 233 points. Meanwhile, the total is currently at 232.5 at Bet365. Take the Over.
Denver’s Top-5 Offense
The Denver Nuggets are an elite offense. Many of their star players are questionable, but they’ll all play.
That’s big news, especially since the Nuggets rank fourth in the NBA in points per 100 possessions and 4th in effective field goal percentage. Denver is also fourth in free throw rate and 10th in offensive rebounds.
The Nuggets should have lots of success on the glass. After all, the Mavericks have given up 29.1% of offensive rebounds this season. If the Nuggets stay active and earn second chances, they’ll score at a solid rate.
Dallas Could Have Kyrie Irving Back!
The Mavericks rank 6th in the NBA in points per 100 possessions. They’re still five games above .500 and have dealt with injuries to Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic lately. Doncic won’t return for another couple of weeks. However, Irving might return tonight.
Irving would help an offense already scoring 117.4 points per 100 possessions. Getting to the foul line might be harder and Dallas’ field goal percentage could take a hit. However, if Dallas limits turnovers, as expected, they’ll have enough opportunities to keep the game close. Ride the Over 232.5 with the AI Model here.
NBA Pick: Over 232.5 (-110) at Bet365
Brooklyn Nets vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Tuesday, January 14, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center
The AI Model believes the Blazers and Nets will score 220 points combined. However, Bet365 has this game with a total of 217.5. Take the over in this game as well.
The Nets Can Break Out Tonight
The Brooklyn Nets have a laundry list of injuries headed into this game. But they’ll potentially get some guys back, including D’Angelo Russell, Nic Claxton, and Cameron Johnson.
That’ll help against a Blazers defense that has already allowed 118.1 points per 100 possessions. Portland ranks 25th in defensive effective field goal percentage and has allowed 31.6% of offensive rebounds with a 21.1 free throw rate.
Most NBA teams have no issues finding ways to score against the Blazers this season.
Portland Needs to Stay Active On the Offensive Glass
The Blazers are just as bad offensively as they are defensively. Luckily for them, the Nets have allowed 117.7 points per 100 possessions and are dead last in defensive effective field goal percentage.
The Nets, like Portland, foul a lot. Brooklyn should be able to force more turnovers but the Blazers should have fun on the offensive glass. Portland has earned nearly 31% of offensive rebounds and should continue to find that success tonight. Both defenses stink. Back the Over with the AI Model.
NBA Pick: Over 217.5 (-110) at Bet365
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
