Today’s NBA slate features many games spreads of eight points or higher in five of six games. We could see some massive blowouts tonight. But what does our AI Model think?
Here are the best three bets for tonight’s NBA action via our AI Model.
Picks Summary
- Wizards-Warriors Over 228.5 (-110)
- Timberwolves +8 (+110)
- Blazers +11 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Washington Wizards vs. Golden State Warriors
Saturday, January 18, 2025 – 08:30 PM ET at Chase Center
The AI Model suggests Washington and Golden State will combine for 229 points. However, the total at the NBA odds boards is stuck at 228.5. The Over is the best play in this game.
Washington’s Brutal Defense
The Washington Wizards rank dead last in defensive points per 100 possessions, allowing 120.4 points.
The team has been destroyed on the defensive glass, allowing nearly a 56% effective field goal percentage.
Don’t expect Washington to earn many turnovers. Instead, expect the Warriors to get open looks and tons of second chances off misses. After all, the Warriors have gained 29.7% of offensive rebounds and are actually very good on the offensive glass this season.
Can Washington Score Enough?
The Warriors will score a lot of points. So we don’t need the Wizards to go absolutely berserk from the field. We just need the Wizards to score their averages.
Golden State has an above-average defense. However, the team is already without Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski, and the Warriors might not even have Draymond Green in tonight’s showdown. That will hurt Golden State’s defense heading into tonight’s game.
Plus, you’d have to imagine Golden State is a bit drained after a long road trip on the East Coast. The Warriors haven’t played a home game since January 7. The defense could be a bit slow.
Back the Over 228.5 in this game. The AI Model loves this play.
NBA Pick: Over 228.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Saturday, January 18, 2025 – 09:00 PM ET at Target Center
Our AI Model believes Minnesota will lose to the Cavaliers by three points. Meanwhile, Minnesota is +8 via Caesars. The AI Model doesn’t think this game will be a blowout at all!
Minnesota’s Defense Can Be Great!
The Timberwolves are coming off an exciting win against the Knicks, in which Minnesota held them to just 99 points, 116-99.
The Timberwolves rank 6th in the NBA in points per 100 possessions and have allowed opponents to shoot a 52.8% effective field goal percentage. Opponents also aren’t consistently getting to the foul line against Minnesota.
The Cavaliers pride themselves on being the best offense in the NBA. But the Timberwolves should be able to slow them down enough. Plus, Cleveland ranks 24th in offensive rebounding. The Cavaliers aren’t a huge threat when earning second chances.
Minnesota Has The Edge!
Although the Timberwolves aren’t nearly as good offensively as the Cavaliers, they have shot an effective field goal percentage of 55.1% and grabbed nearly 28% of offensive rebounds.
The Timberwolves should be more aggressive on the offensive glass, which would help them earn more second chances.
The Timberwolves are playing some good ball after last night’s game. Let’s back them at +8.
NBA Pick: Timberwolves +8 (+110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Houston Rockets vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Saturday, January 18, 2025 – 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center
The AI Model believes Portland will cover an 11-point spread with a nine-point loss at home to the Houston Rockets. The AI Model likes the underdog yet again!
Portland Is Sneaky!
The Portland Trail Blazers have lost four consecutive games, the last three by wide margins. But let’s not forget that they defeated the Rockets earlier this year, 104-98.
In that game, the Rockets were held to 35.6% from the field, losing the rebounding battle 53-43 to the Blazers.
Ultimately, the Rockets are the best offensive-rebounding team in the NBA this season. Yet, in that game, they failed to earn that rate.
Rockets Still On Road Trip
The Houston Rockets have played four of their last five games on the road. That’s where they’ll be in tonight’s game against Portland. The road is certainly taking a toll on the Rockets, who failed to beat the Kings last time out, 132-127.
If Portland continues to succeed on the glass and force more turnovers, the Blazers can catch the Rockets sleeping tonight.
Take Portland at +11.
NBA Pick: Blazers +11 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
