Although there are only six games on tonight’s NBA slate, there are still some valuable lines that we can attack. I used the AI Model to get an edge on the sportsbooks tonight. Check out the best plays below.
Picks Summary
- Jazz-Magic Over 212 (-110) at Bet365
- Lakers +4.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Kings-Warriors Over 225 (-110) at Bet365
Utah Jazz vs. Orlando Magic
Sunday, January 05, 2025 – 06:30 PM ET at Kia Center
The AI Model believes the Magic and Jazz will score 215 points. However, Bet365 is carrying a total of 212. The over looks to be in the play in this game.
Is Orlando’s Defense Overrated?
The Orlando Magic rank No. 3 in the NBA in points per 100 possessions. It’s due to their high turnover percentage and very good defensive rebounding.
Yet, the Magic still allow a high rate of foul shots due to their aggressiveness on defense. You can look at this two ways. But both are positive for the over.
The first way is that the Magic will send the Jazz to the foul line at a high rate. We’ll get points with the time stopped.
The second is that the Magic force enough turnovers to earn a high rate of transition points, which are easy points that require little time off the clock.
Orlando Could Be Better Tonight
Orlando is certainly not a top offense in the NBA. But it could look like it tonight. After all, the Magic are taking on a Jazz defense that ranks 28th in defensive points per 100 possessions, 25th in defensive effective field goal percentage, and 30th in turnover percentage.
The Magic will get plenty of good looks. Now, they’ll just have to connect. With the way the Jazz have defended, it’s a very good possibility.
Take the Over 212 at -110 NBA odds here.
NBA Pick: Over 212 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Houston Rockets
Sunday, January 05, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Toyota Center
Our AI Model thinks the Lakers will lose to the Rockets 113-110. That’s only a three-point differential, but you can get the Lakers at +4.5 at Caesars. Grab the Lakers with those odds.
The Lakers Must Battle!
It’s never easy to score against the Rockets. Houston has limited teams to 106.9 points per 100 possessions and held opponents to a 51.5% effective field goal percentage.
Ultimately, don’t expect the Lakers to succeed on the offensive glass. However, they are still above average in points per 100 possessions on offense and have shot an effective field goal percentage of 54.7%. This is a quality offense that can still score points when needed.
You can’t say the same about the Rockets.
Poor Shooting Will Hurt Houston
The Rockets are scoring 114.1 points per 100 possessions this season. Their offense is dominant on the offensive glass and limits turnovers. However, their shot-making is very poor. They have shot a 50.7% effective field goal percentage, which ranks 29th in the NBA.
While second-chance points will be there, it’ll still be hard to escape the Lakers in this game. I’ll buy the Lakers at +4.5.
NBA Pick: Lakers +4.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Sacramento Kings vs. Golden State Warriors
Sunday, January 05, 2025 – 08:30 PM ET at Chase Center
The AI Model suggests the Warriors and Kings will add 230 points in tonight’s showdown. Yet, at Bet365, you’ll find the total at 225. Clearly, the Over is the play looking at the AI Model’s projections.
The Kings Have Some Advantages On Offense!
It’s hard to score at a high rate against the Golden State Warriors. After all, the Warriors have held teams to 110.5 points per 100 possessions and rank 6th in that category.
Still, the Kings have a free throw rate of 20.2, while the Warriors have allowed a 19.7 free throw rate on defense. Sacramento should be able to get to the foul line and earn points with the time stopped.
Additionally, the Kings are very good at limiting turnovers. Not all shots will go in, but the Kings will at least take many. That’s the key.
Golden State Could Get To The Foul Line More, Too!
The Warriors aren’t nearly as good of an offense. However, Golden State could see the foul line more, knowing the Kings have allowed a 21.1 free throw rate on defense. The Warriors could also get some better shots from the field, especially since the Kings have given up a 55.3% effective field goal percentage.
At home, you can expect the Warriors to shoot a little better. That’ll help reach the Over. Let’s side with the Over using the AI Model’s help.
NBA Pick: Over 225 (-110) at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
