We’ve got a loaded slate in the NBA tonight! Therefore, I went right to the AI Model looking for the best valuable plays on tonight’s slate. Here are three best bets that you’ll want to consider.
Picks Summary
- Kings +5.5 (-110) at Bet365
- Thunder-Grizzlies Under 250.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Clippers +5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Sacramento Kings vs. Denver Nuggets
Wednesday, March 05, 2025 – 09:00 PM ET at Ball Arena
The AI Model believes the Nuggets will add a 121-116 win over the Kings tonight. That’s a five-point difference. However, the Kings are +5.5 against the spread. Sacramento would cover in this scenario.
The Kings Will Get Shots Up!
The Kings are still without Domantas Sabonis. However, the team still ranks in the top 15 in all major offensive categories.
The Nuggets have forced just 13.2% of turnovers per game, which is ideal for the Kings, who have only turned the ball over 13.3% of the time.
With fewer turnovers, the Kings have a much better chance at scoring at a reasonable rate tonight.
Denver Won’t Dominate The Glass
The Nuggets should shoot a high percentage from the floor against the Kings. However, off misses, the Nuggets won’t add nearly as many offensive rebounds as they’re used to.
The Nuggets have gained more than 30% of offensive rebounds but will take on a Kings team that ranks third in the NBA in defensive rebounding. If the offensive rebounds and second chances are down, the Nuggets will struggle to pull away in this game.
Let’s roll with the Kings at +5.5 and tail the AI Model here.
NBA Pick: Kings +5.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Wednesday, March 05, 2025 – 09:30 PM ET at FedExForum
The AI Model suggests the Thunder and Grizzlies will combine for 249 points, but that wouldn’t be enough to exceed the 250.5 total. The Under looks like the play in this one.
The Thunder Won’t Have It Easy!
The Oklahoma City Thunder have added 120.5 points per 100 possessions. That’s good for fourth in the NBA. However, they’re facing a Grizzlies team that still ranks 9th in the NBA in defensive points per 100 possessions.
Ultimately, the Thunder will not get the easiest looks and could turn the ball over more than they are used to.
In addition, the Thunder rank 24th in free throw rate and don’t typically get to the foul line at a high rate.
Turnovers Can Get High For Memphis
Like the Thunder, the Memphis Grizzlies have a top-tier offense. However, Memphis isn’t very careful with the ball. The Grizzlies have turned the ball over 15.9% of the time, which will ultimately limit their ability to create second chances, foul shots, and more buckets.
Plus, the Thunder rank No. 1 in the NBA in points per 100 possessions on defense. The Grizzlies won’t get quality looks to begin with. The Thunder have also tallied nearly 18% of turnovers on defense, which is the best rate in the NBA.
For those reasons, give me the Under 250.5 at -110 NBA odds.
NBA Pick: Under 250.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Detroit Pistons vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Wednesday, March 05, 2025 – 10:30 PM ET at Intuit Dome
The AI Model predicts the Pistons will escape the Clippers with a two-point win. However, the Clippers are +5 against the spread. Consider the Clippers at home in this game.
Los Angeles Can Still Defend!
The Clippers’ injured list includes Kawhi Leonard, Norman Powell, and Derrick Jones Jr. But the Clippers are still committed on the defensive end.
After all, the Clippers have limited teams to 110.7 points per 100 possessions and rank second in the NBA in offensive rebounding percentage allowed on the defensive end.
Ultimately, the Pistons usually succeed on the offensive glass, adding 29.6% of offensive rebounds. Just don’t expect that high of a number against the Clippers.
The Clippers Will Also Struggle Earning Second Chances!
Just like the Pistons, the Clippers will also likely struggle on the offensive glass.
The Clippers have added just 27.4% of offensive rebounds and have turned the ball over 15.8% of the time. It’s why Los Angeles ranks 21st in the NBA in points per 100 possessions. They’re not consistent and are without some of their best scorers tonight.
However, James Harden and the rest of the active players should be able to get to the foul line more consistently. The Clippers rank 12th in free-throw rate and will face a Pistons team that ranks 25th.
That could be the difference. Let’s ride the Clippers at +5.
NBA Pick: Clippers +5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
