There are another five NBA games on the slate tonight. With a solid portion of games, we asked the AI Model for its best bets. I’ve added the top three below, with the best NBA odds we could find at top sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Kings -1.5 (-110)
- Nets-Pelicans Over 212 (-110)
- Clippers-Thunder Over 219 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Sacramento Kings vs. San Antonio Spurs
Monday, November 11, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Frost Bank Center
The AI Model believes the Kings will earn a three-point win against the Spurs on the road. With Sacramento sitting at -1.5, there’s value in the Kings against the spread.
The Kings Are Above-Average Offensively
The Sacramento Kings have scored 117.3 points per 100 possessions, which is good for seventh in the NBA. Ultimately, the Kings have limited turnovers to 13% and have reached the foul line at a super high rate.
That rate could drop slightly, knowing how good the Spurs are at defending without fouling. Still, the Spurs aren’t earning a high rate of takeaways and have still given up 113.1 points per 100 possessions. San Antonio has also allowed 28.4% of offensive rebounds, which isn’t horrible. But the Kings can still take advantage.
Can San Antonio Keep Up?
The San Antonio Spurs have scored just 109.4 points per 100 possessions. They’ve mostly struggled with turnovers, giving up 17.5% of turnovers per game.
That’s certainly not ideal, especially since the Kings have forced nearly 16% of turnovers per game. You can expect the Kings to win the turnover battle. They’ve also held teams to 26.2% of offensive rebounds and have been better defensively in effective field goal percentage and free throw rate.
The Kings have better analytics all around. Even on the road, coming off an overtime win yesterday, the AI Model and I both like the Kings to win tonight.
NBA Pick: Kings -1.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Brooklyn Nets vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Monday, November 11, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center
Our AI Model likes the Nets and Pelicans to combine for 215 points in a tight matchup. With the Over set at 212 via Caesars, the Over is certainly the play in tonight’s game.
New Orleans Is Dreadful!
The New Orleans Pelicans are 3-7 to begin the year. This is primarily due to their inept defense, which has allowed 120.6 points per 100 possessions, a 58% effective field goal percentage, and 32.4% of offensive rebounds.
The Pelicans need to improve at forcing bad shots. But when a shot is missed, they’re also terrible at rebounding it. That type of play won’t win many games. The Nets should be able to score at will.
Brooklyn Can’t Stop Fouling
The Brooklyn Nets have a better overall defense. However, they have allowed a 27.3 free-throw rate this season, which is 29th in the NBA.
It’s more likely that the Pelicans will win the foul-line battle and add points to the scoreboard without the clock moving.
That should help New Orleans at least stick around in this game.
After all, the Nets have still allowed a defensively 55.1% effective field goal percentage. The Pelicans can take advantage. Let’s grab the Over 212. You can thank the AI Model when it hits.
NBA Pick: Over 212 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Monday, November 11, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Paycom Center
The AI Model thinks the Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder will finish with 221 points. However, Caesars is carrying a total of 219. The Over is also the play in this game.
Oklahoma City’s Defense Won’t Last
The Oklahoma City Thunder have released that Chet Holmgren will miss a few months due to injury. Now, the Thunder need Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. That was going to be the twin towards for the Thunder. Instead, both are on the shelf and will make it incredibly difficult to defend around the paint.
In addition, the Clippers have gained 29.3% of offensive rebounds. That rate could increase now that Holmgren is unable to play.
Oklahoma City Will Still Shoot With Volume
The Oklahoma City Thunder won’t be effective on the glass. We might not even see the Thunder reached the foul line much.
However, the Thunder have turned the ball over only 11.7% of the time and have still scored 114.9 points per 100 possessions. While the Thunder might not shoot a high field goal percentage, the volume counts. The more shots, the more chances, and the more points.
Let’s back the Over 219 per the AI Model.
NBA Pick: Over 219 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
