It’s the start of the in-season NBA Cup tonight! These matchups will be slightly more intense than your regular season matchups. Therefore, we asked the AI Model for its favorite three bets of the slate. I’ve added them, along with my analysis, below, with the best NBA odds we could find at top sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Suns ML (-165)
- Timberwolves-Trail Blazers Over 218.5 (-110)
- Warriors -2.5 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Phoenix Suns vs. Utah Jazz
Tuesday, November 12, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Delta Center
The AI Model believes the Suns will add a 116-113 win over the Utah Jazz tonight. The Suns are -165 on the moneyline via Caesars. Despite being on the road, the Suns are an excellent play for tonight.
No Kevin Durant, No Problem
The Suns will be without Kevin Durant. However, the Suns should still be successful against the Jazz.
After all, the Jazz have allowed 118.2 points per 100 possessions and are below average defensively in effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, and rebounding.
Meanwhile, Phoenix has shot an effective field goal percentage of 56.2% and has turned the ball over just 13.7% of the time. These are encouraging numbers for the Suns.
Utah Isn’t Close Offensively
The Jazz are not like the Suns at all. Utah ranks 29th in points per 100 possessions, 29th in effective field goal percentage, and 30th in turnover percentage on offense.
The Jazz typically do a good job getting to the foul line. However, the Suns’ defense ranks 9th in free throw rate, so the Jazz will struggle, even at home.
Consider the Suns at -165 on the moneyline, even on the road. They’re the better team analytically.
NBA Pick: Suns ML (-165) at Caesars Sportsbook
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Tuesday, November 12, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center
Our AI Model believes Minnesota and Portland will combine for 219 points. However, at Caesars, you’ll find a total of 218.5. There’s slight value in backing the Over.
Expect Easy Looks All Game For Minnesota
The Minnesota Timberwolves have scored 116.5 points per 100 possessions and rank third in the NBA in effective field goal percentage. They’ll take on a Portland defense that has allowed a 55.8% effective field goal percentage.
Minnesota should get a lot of easy looks. In addition, Minnesota has grabbed 28% of offensive rebounds. While this isn’t a super high rate, Portland has allowed 32.3% of offensive rebounds on defense. Expect Minnesota to be more active on the glass of their misses.
Portland Just Needs To Chip In A Little
The Portland Trail Blazers have the worst offense in the NBA. However, they have also been active on the offensive glass. Portland has brought down 31.8% of offensive rebounds per game this season.
They’ll add enough second chances to keep the score within reach if they can maintain that number. Take the Over 218.5 in this NBA Cup game.
NBA Pick: Over 218.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors
Tuesday, November 12, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Chase Center
The AI Model thinks Golden State will add a 3-point win over the Mavericks tonight. However, you can grab the Warriors at -2.5 against the spread at Caesars. That’s the play.
Dallas’ Inability to Get to the Line
The Dallas Mavericks have scored 116 points per 100 possessions. The offense has also shot a 55.1% effective field goal percentage and has turned the ball over just 11.3% of the time.
However, the Mavericks have struggled to do the little things. Dallas has added just 23.9% of offensive rebounds and has one of the lowest free throw rates in the NBA.
They’ll battle a Warriors defense that ranks second in the NBA in points per 100 possessions. Golden State is ultimately one of the best defenses in the NBA and should hold Dallas at home.
Second-Chances for Golden State
The Warriors are also facing a very good defense. The Mavericks rank 7th in the NBA in points per 100 possessions on the defense. However, the Mavericks aren’t forcing a high rate of turnovers and have allowed 28.9% of offensive rebounds.
This is where the Warriors can take advantage. Golden State has grabbed 30.7% of offensive rebounds and should have more second chances overall. That’ll be enough for Golden State to get the cover against the spread.
NBA Pick: Warriors -2.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
