We’ve got six NBA Cup group-stage matchups on the slate. It’s safe to assume some of these games will be very competitive down the stretch. I asked the AI Model for its favorite three bets and will share them below, with the best NBA odds we could find at top sportsbooks.
And don’t forget to check out our YouTube channel for additional picks for the Hornets vs. Nets and Jazz vs. Lakers games!
Picks Summary
- Pelicans +12 (-110)
- Spurs +9.5 (-110)
- Lakers -10.5 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Dallas Mavericks
Tuesday, November 19, 2024 – 08:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center
The AI Model believes the Pelicans will only lose to the Mavericks, 117-106. Yet, per Caesars, the Pelicans are 12-point underdogs. There’s value in the Pelicans on the road in this matchup.
New Orleans Won’t Get Good Shots, But…
The New Orleans Pelicans have shot a 50.3% effective field goal percentage. It’s one of the worst rates in the NBA.
However, despite the misses, the Pelicans have earned 32.4% of offensive rebounds. There’s a good chance the Pelicans add a lot of second-chance points against the Mavericks.
Ultimately, the Mavericks have allowed 29.5% of offensive rebounds per game and aren’t even above average in turnover percentage or free throw rate on the defensive end.
It’s Hard To Sustain Success Without Getting To The Line
The Mavericks should be the team with better shots overall. They’ll also likely keep turnovers down in this game.
That said, the Mavericks have a 19 free throw rate and will face a Pelicans defense that ranks No. 1 in defensive free throw rate. The Mavericks likely won’t see the foul line much at home, and that could help the Pelicans at least cover a gigantic spread. Let’s back the Pelicans at +12.
NBA Pick: Pelicans +12 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs
Tuesday, November 19, 2024 – 09:30 PM ET at Frost Bank Center
Our AI Model thinks the Spurs will only lose to the Thunder 116-109. The Spurs are home, and Caesars has the Spurs as 9.5-point underdogs. There’s legitimate value backing the Spurs tonight.
Oklahoma City Doesn’t Do The Little Things
The Oklahoma City Thunder have a laundry list of injuries, including Chet Holmgren. Without him, the Thunder are 28th in offensive rebounding and 28th in free-throw rate. The offense is good at limiting turnovers, but it does not take the best looks from the field.
After all, the Thunder have scored 116.6 points per 100 possessions, which is 8th-best in the NBA.
The Spurs are also really good at limiting foul shots, which should be helpful down the stretch.
Winning Small Battles
The Thunder have allowed just 103.1 points per 100 possessions. They’re the best defense in the NBA.
However, Oklahoma City has allowed 32.8% of offensive rebounds and a 22.1 free throw rate. The Spurs should be able to take advantage of those two areas and sneak out with at least a cover. Grab the Spurs at +9.5 here.
NBA Pick: Spurs +9.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Utah Jazz vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Tuesday, November 19, 2024 – 10:30 PM ET at crypto.com Arena
The AI Model recommends the Lakers at -10.5. The model likes the Lakers to earn an 11-point win over the Jazz. Therefore, the 9-4 Lakers are the play against the spread.
Utah’s Offense Is Nothing Special
The Utah Jazz just scored 105 points in a matchup against the Clippers on Sunday. Now they’ll look to take on the Lakers and also on the road tonight.
The Jazz have scored 108.8 points per 100 possessions and have added just a 51.9% effective field goal percentage. Beyond that, Utah has turned the ball over nearly 19% of the time.
The Lakers don’t have the highest turnover rate on defense but should be able to take advantage.
Ultimately, the Jazz are aggressive and frequently get to the foul line. Yet, the Lakers rank in the top 10 in limiting teams’ access to the foul line.
The Lakers Can Get Whatever They Want
The Lakers have scored 118.1 points per 100 possessions, which is fourth in the NBA. On the other hand, the Jazz have allowed 119.6 points per 100 possessions, which is 29th in the NBA.
The Lakers should add a high effective field goal percentage and won’t turn the ball over often. They’ll even have more success on the offensive glass.
The Lakers are the only team better than the Jazz at getting to the foul line. So, I’d still expect the Lakers to take more foul shots, especially at home.
I’m with the AI Model. Let’s take the Lakers at -10.5.
NBA Pick: Lakers -10.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
