With Thanksgiving right around the corner, there are 14 games on tonight’s NBA slate. Ultimately, the NBA won’t have any games tomorrow, which is Thanksgiving Day. So, let’s enjoy the 14-game slate with three bets to consider via the AI Model, as always with the best betting odds available.
Picks Summary
- Nuggets-Jazz Over 231 (-110)
- Nets +9 (-110)
- Warriors +2.5 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbooks (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Denver Nuggets vs. Utah Jazz
Wednesday, November 27, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Delta Center
The AI Model believes the Nuggets and Jazz will score 232 points. However, at Caesars, you’ll find a 231 number as the total. Clearly, the Over has the value.
Denver Can’t Be Stopped
The Denver Nuggets are a top-six offense, scoring 117.1 points per 100 possessions. Denver has added a 55.2% effective field goal percentage and has only turned the ball over 14.2% of the time.
They’ve also added 30.1% of offensive rebounds and a 21.8 free throw rate. All of these numbers are at least top-14 in the NBA.
Meanwhile, the Jazz rank 28th in the NBA in points per 100 possessions defensively and 23rd in defensive effective field goal percentage.
Ultimately, the Nuggets should have their way on the offensive side tonight.
The Jazz Can Score, Too
The Utah Jazz are not nearly as consistent as the Nuggets. However, Denver’s defense has allowed a 54.5% effective field goal percentage and has only toled 14.4% of turnovers.
Although the Jazz are turning the ball over at a super high rate, that rate will likely drop against a Nuggets defense that isn’t really aggressive at earning steals.
Let’s back the Over 231. The Nuggets will lead the charge, but the Jazz will help.
NBA Pick: Over 231 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbooks
Brooklyn Nets vs. Phoenix Suns
Wednesday, November 27, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Footprint Center
Our AI Model thinks the Nets will only lose to the Suns 113-106. That’s a seven-point deficit, but the Nets are nine-point underdogs. Take the Nets against the spread.
Brooklyn Should Never Be A Massive Underdog!
I’ve said this multiple times in many articles.
The Nets shouldn’t be a major underdog in any game. Brooklyn is a top-ten offense, scoring 116.1 points per 100 possessions. They’ll struggle on the offensive glass but should get a lot of good looks tonight.
After all, the Suns have allowed a 54.9% effective field goal percentage, and the Nets have hit a 56.1% effective field goal percentage. In addition, the Nets have only turned the ball over in 14.7% of possessions, while the Suns have gained only 13.1% of turnovers per game.
The Nets can shoot!
Fewer Second Chances For The Suns
The Suns will have Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal in tonight’s lineup. That’ll be critical. Still, the Suns have only been an average offense, scoring 114.4 points per 100 possessions. This rate is worse than the Nets’ rate.
The Suns should see more foul shot attempts and will get good looks. It’s still likely the Suns will win outright. However, the value is better with the Nets, who have been a more consistent offense.
I’m on the Nets at +9, thanks to the AI Model.
NBA Pick: Nets +9 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbooks
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Golden State Warriors
Wednesday, November 27, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Chase Center
The AI Model likes the Thunder to win, 116-114, against the Warriors tonight. However, the Warriors are 2.5-point underdogs via Caesars. Golden State against the spread is the way to go.
Golden State Can Defend!
The Golden State Warriors have held teams to 108.2 points per 100 possessions. The Warriors have also held teams to a 50.5% effective field goal percentage, earning 15.2% of turnovers.
Don’t expect the Warriors to add a high rate of turnovers on defense. However, Golden State should still be able to limit the Thunder from the field.
After all, the Thunder have shot just a 54.5% effective field goal percentage and have only turned the ball over 11.7% of the time. They’ll get a lot of shots up but won’t shoot a high percentage.
Plus, while the Warriors send teams to the line at a high rate, the Thunder are one of the least aggressive teams regarding getting to the foul line.
Offensive Rebounding Is The Key
The Oklahoma City Thunder are the No. 1 defense in the NBA. They’ve held teams to 104 points per 100 possessions and have limited teams to an effective field goal percentage of just 49.9%.
However, the Thunder have still allowed 32.2% of offensive rebounds. With the Warriors earning 29.8% of offensive rebounds per game, there’s room for the Warriors to add a lot of second-chance points.
If the Warriors can capitalize on those second chances, they’ll have the opportunity to win this game outright.
NBA Pick: Warriors +2.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbooks
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
