There are only three games on the NBA slate tonight. Therefore, I asked the AI Model for its best bets for all three games.
The results are talked about below, as always, with the best NBA odds we could find at the top sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Jazz +9.5 (-110)
- Timberwolves-Bulls Over 227.5 (-110)
- Spurs -4 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Utah Jazz vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Thursday, November 07, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum
The AI Model believes the Utah Jazz will hang around against the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks are 1-6 but a 9.5-point favorite at home against Utah. However, the model only thinks the Jazz will lose by nine. There’s slight value on Utah tonight.
Could Utah’s Offense Improve?
It’s no secret that the Utah Jazz are the worst offense in the NBA. However, they’re facing against a Milwaukee defense that is a top-five worst defense.
The Bucks have allowed opponents to score 119.4 points per 100 possessions and have watched opponents shoot a 56.1% effective field goal percentage.
Even worse, the Bucks have earned below 11% of turnovers per game. This doesn’t bode well for Milwaukee, even against the Jazz.
No Freebies For Milwaukee
The Milwaukee Bucks have a bunch of stars on the roster. Yet, they’re scoring 110.7 points per 100 possessions, thanks to just 19.9% of offensive rebounds.
Maybe the offensive rebounds will increase. However, the foul shots won’t. The Jazz have allowed a 16.1 free-throw rate on defense.
If Utah can get to the foul line more, win the rebounding battle, and keep turnovers down, it’d be hard for the Bucks to shut them down and win by double digits.
I agree with the Jazz at +9.5. The AI Model is on to something!
NBA Pick: Jazz +9.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Chicago Bulls
Thursday, November 07, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at United Center
Our AI Model thinks the Bulls and Timberwolves will score 229 points combined. However, you can find the Over 227.5 at Caesars, proving the Over has some value per the AI Model.
Good Shot Selection From Minnesota
The Minnesota Timberwolves won’t have many second-chance points or a ton of offensive rebounds. However, the Timberwolves are still taking good shots.
After all, Minnesota has averaged a 57.3% effective field goal percentage and a 21.1 free throw rate.
Beyond that, while the Timberwolves turned the ball over 16% of the time, the Chicago defense has totaled only 11.5% of turnovers. There’s a good chance Minnesota limits turnovers on offense. That would result in more points.
Zach LaVine Should Return
The Bulls have yet to be a consistent offense. But the good news is that Zach LaVine is expected to return to the starting lineup. LaVine missed yesterday’s game with a thigh injury. He’s currently Chicago’s leading scorer and will help get the Bulls better shots.
I agree with the AI Model. The Over 227.5 is the play.
NBA Pick: Over 227.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Portland Trail Blazers vs. San Antonio Spurs
Thursday, November 07, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Frost Bank Center
The AI Model suggests San Antonio will defeat Portland, 113-107, as four-point favorites. The Spurs are at -4 at the sportsbooks, even though the AI Model has the Spurs winning by six.
More Bad Shots For Portland
The Portland Trail Blazers have scored just 107.4 points per 100 possessions. That ranks 26th in the NBA.
The major reason is Portland’s effective field goal percentage. The Blazers have shot an effective field goal percentage of 48.8%. In addition, the Blazers rarely get to the foul line and have turned the ball over 15.2% of the time.
Don’t expect Portland to see the foul line much against San Antonio, especially since the Spurs rank second in the NBA in defensive free throw rate.
How The Spurs Can Be Effective
The Spurs aren’t scoring at a better rate. The offense has scored just 107.3 points per 100 possessions. However, for one, the Spurs are home. Secondly, San Antonio has added 28.4% of offensive rebounds and should have way more second chances.
Additionally, the Spurs have shot a higher effective field goal percentage and should see the foul line more. This should help the Spurs escape with a big enough lead to cover the spread.
Grab the Spurs at -4 for tonight’s showdown.
NBA Pick: Spurs -4 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
