While many bettors will test their luck in the NFL, you can be different. Think about all the value that bettors will miss out on in the NBA tonight!
We’ve got a five-game slate in the NBA, so we’ve asked our computers for their favorite three bets of the night. Here’s what they came up with.
Picks Summary
- Nets +9.5 (-110)
- Hawks-Thunder Over 230.5 (-110)
- Clippers-Warriors Over 222 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Brooklyn Nets
Sunday, October 27, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at Barclays Center
The AI Model believes the Brooklyn Nets will take a 120-111 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks. However, Caesars has the Nets at +9.5. Brooklyn would cover the spread if it were to lose by nine. Therefore, the best bet in this game is the Nets at +9.5.
How The Nets Can Stop Milwaukee
The Brooklyn Nets have allowed 117.6 points per 100 possessions and a 58.2% effective field goal percentage. It’s due to many fouls and a lack of turnovers. But it’s not from being effective on the glass.
The Nets can limit Milwaukee with their defensive rebound efforts. If the Bucks have a slightly worse field goal percentage tonight, the Nets will survive defensively.
Brooklyn Is An Average Group
The Nets could be looking at a top pick next season. But so far, the metrics scream average. On offense, the Nets have scored 107 points per 100 possessions and have shot a 52.3% effective field goal percentage.
These numbers are good enough to stick around in any game as long as the defense improves a little bit.
NBA Computer Pick
I’m not saying the Nets will win outright, but they’ll keep it close.
NBA Pick: Nets +9.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Atlanta Hawks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Sunday, October 27, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Paycom Center
Our AI Model believes the Thunder and Hawks will combine for 233 points. However, Caesars Sportsbook has a total of just 230. That means the Model believes there will be about three or four more points in this game than the sportsbooks. The Over is the play in this one.
Atlanta Can Be Really Good Offensively
The Atlanta Hawks have already scored 118.5 points per 100 possessions and have delivered a 56.4% effective field goal percentage. Additionally, the Hawks have found their way to the foul line at the highest rate in the league.
The Hawks might not shoot at the highest percentage against the Thunder. But I’d still expect many second-chance points against a Thunder defense that has allowed 30.3% of offensive rebounds per game.
The Hawks will score at a solid rate.
OKC Isn’t This Bad
The Thunder have scored 102.5 points per 100 possessions and have shot a 45.8% effective field goal percentage. But like the Hawks, the Thunder should add a lot of offensive rebounds and get to the foul line more often.
The Thunder have been good at limiting turnovers. They just haven’t done well everywhere else. But with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading the way, the offense will improve.
NBA Computer Pick
Let’s take the Over 230.5 via Caesars at -110 NBA odds.
NBA Pick: Over 230.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Golden State Warriors
Sunday, October 27, 2024 – 08:30 PM ET at Chase Center
The AI Model believes the Clippers and Warriors will combine for 223 points tonight. At Caesars, the total is stuck at 222, meaning there’s also value on the Over in this game. It’s minimal value, but it’s still value.
Los Angeles Can Earn Points From The Foul Line
The Golden State Warriors have some of the best metrics on the defensive side of the ball. But let’s take that with a grain of salt. After all, the Warriors have played the Portland Trail Blazers and Utah Jazz. Those two are some of the worst teams in the NBA.
The Clippers aren’t. They’ll shoot at a higher percentage and likely get to the foul line more. Ultimately, as long as the Clippers can keep the turnovers down, they’ll stick around in tonight’s game against the Warriors.
Golden State Will Challenge On The Glass
The Golden State Warriors have shot an effective field goal percentage of 56.3%. They’ve scored 120.4 points per 100 possessions and have delivered 38% of offensive rebounds.
The Clippers might not allow that many offensive rebounds, but there’s a good chance the Warriors still shoot a high, effective field goal percentage. After all, the Clippers have allowed opponents to hit a 53.4% effective field goal percentage through two games this year.
NBA Computer Pick
We’ll get some defense regression from both sides in tonight’s game. The AI Model likes the Over, and after breaking this game down, so do I.
NBA Pick: Over 222 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
