We’ve got two NBA Cup semifinal matchups on tonight’s NBA slate. Therefore, I asked the AI Model for its favorite two bets, with the best NBA odds we could find. Here’s what it came up with.
Picks Summary
- Hawks-Bucks Over 227.5 (-110) at Bet365
- Thunder -5.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Saturday, December 14, 2024 – 04:30 PM ET at T-Mobile Arena
The AI Model believes the Hawks and Bucks will score 230 points in tonight’s NBA Cup matchup. The total is currently set at 227.5 per Bet365. Therefore, the Over is certainly the play in this one.
The Hawks Will Give The Bucks a Handful
The Atlanta Hawks have only scored an average points per 100 possessions of 113.4 points. However, the Bucks have allowed 115.5 points per 100 possessions. The Hawks likely perform at their usual average, if not better.
Atlanta has shot a 53.2% effective field goal percentage. That’ll need to improve tonight. However, with the Bucks now earning many turnovers and allowing 27.5% of offensive rebounds, there’s reason to believe that the Hawks will dominate the offensive glass and limit turnovers.
All of that helps with scoring the basketball. Ultimately, the Bucks have earned 12.7% of turnovers per game. They’re not sneaky at forcing turnovers. Meanwhile, the Hawks have gained nearly 32% of offensive rebounds. They’re crafty on the glass and should get extra possessions with second-chance points.
Milwaukee Will Continue Hot Shooting
The Milwaukee Bucks have already shot a 57.7% effective field goal percentage, which is why they scored 115.4 points per 100 possessions. The Bucks are a top-ten offense and have turned the ball over just 13.9% of the time.
It’s more likely that the Hawks struggled to force 16% of turnovers like they normally do. Additionally, the Bucks won’t have much success on the offensive glass. But it’s more likely the Bucks get to the foul line more. They’ve added a 20.3 free throw rate, while the Hawks have given up a 19.2 free throw rate.
As long as the Bucks are consistent from the field like they’ve been throughout the year, the Bucks will keep scoring at a high rate. They’ll need to know how well the Hawks have been offensively over the last few weeks.
Many bettors like taking the Unders in tournament games, but according to our AI Model, this one should exceed the total. Both offenses are very capable of scoring at a high rate, too. I’ll grab the Over with the Model.
NBA Pick: Over 227.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Saturday, December 14, 2024 – 08:30 PM ET at T-Mobile Arena
Our AI Model believes the Thunder will escape with a 112-105 win against the Rockets tonight. However, you’ll find the Thunder at -5.5 at Caesars, which has lots of value.
Brick City
The Houston Rockets have scored 114 points per 100 possessions. That’s not so bad. However, the Rockets have also shot a 50.5% effective field goal percentage.
That’s 27th in the NBA. Even worse, they’re facing a Thunder defense that ranks No. 1 in points per 100 possessions and also No. 1 in defensive effective field goal percentage.
The Thunder have literally allowed just a 50.4% effective field goal percentage. While Houston will have some success on the offensive glass, it’ll be hard for the Rockets to score consistently from the field.
More Possessions & Better Shots!
The Thunder figure to shoot at a better percentage. After all, Oklahoma City has shot a 54.6% effective field goal percentage.
Houston can also seriously defend. However, the Thunder can become more open and have better shot-makers on their team.
Additionally, the Thunder have turned the ball over only 11.7% of the time. They’ll struggle more on the offensive glass and might not get to the foul line. But as long as the Thunder limit turnovers, they’ll get shots up. These shots will look better than what the Rockets will get on their offensive end.
Let’s stick with the AI Model and take the Thunder at -5.5.
NBA Pick: Thunder -5.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
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