The Cleveland Cavaliers have an opportunity tonight to get a series sweep and start resting for their round two playoff matchup. However, the closeout game is always the hardest, even for a team leading 3-0. Can the Miami Heat fight, and send this series back to Cleveland, or is their season over?
Let’s take a look at the OddsTrader computer projected scores to find winning NBA picks.
The Picks
- Miami Heat +8.5 (-106) at BetMGM
- Duncan Robinson Under 1.5 3s made (-130) at BetMGM
- Darius Garland Over 22.5 (-122) at Bet365
- Kel’el Ware Over 12.5 points, rebounds and assists (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat
Monday, April 28, 2025 – 07:30 PM EDT at Kaseya Center
Heat’s Pride on the Line After Home-Court Beatdown
The Miami Heat became the first 10 seed to make the NBA Playoffs when they defeated the Atlanta Hawks in the NBA play-in tournament. However, they have performed like the 10th best team in the East so far in the playoffs, and the Cleveland Cavaliers have jumped out to an early advantage. The Heat and their fans had to be disappointed by a 124-87 loss in Miami on Saturday.
The game wasn’t even close. It’s one thing to lose to one of the best teams in the league, but to be embarrassed like that on your home court in a playoff game is another. The Miami Heat are a prideful organization, and I would expect them to try and bounce back even if they know they have no chance to win the series.
However, if anyone can do it, it is the Miami Heat who were down 3-0 in the Eastern Conference Finals and forced a Game 7. The Heat will draw upon that confidence and experience to take one game at a time and try to put forth a great effort tonight.
However, effort might not be enough as the Cleveland Cavaliers are a much more talented team. The Cavaliers have much better playmakers on offense, yet have the personnel to play the same quality defense that Miami plays.
Miami’s Young Guns Flash Potential
On paper, I like Miami’s team. They start Davion Mitchell at point guard. He is one of the best defenders in the league, and lately, he has been good on offense. In the Game 3 loss, he was still 7-11 from the field. The Heat also feature sharpshooter Tyler Herro in the back court.
Herro is one of the best scorers in the league and helps the Heat generate offense, especially in tough half court situations. Andrew Wiggins and Bam Adebayo are two versatile frontcourt players that the Heat can rely on to provide good defense.
The key to the Heat will be the development of rookie Kel’el Ware. He is only averaging 9 points and 7 rebounds this season, but he has the potential to be a star in this league in the next couple years. If he is able to develop, this lineup that is struggling against the Cavaliers could be causing teams problems for the next couple years.
Cavs Stay Locked In, Eye a Quick Sweep
After starting off hot to start the season, the Cleveland Cavaliers were kind of lethargic to end the year as they had wrapped up the number one seed in the East. The Cavaliers know that they are essentially on a collision course with the Boston Celtics, and they know that their season will be judged as such.
However, the Cavaliers are doing an excellent job of not playing around in these early round games. It serves their purpose to get a sweep, get some rest, and come into their next series fully healthy and rested. Give the Cavaliers credit for understanding the assignment.
The Cavaliers have an excellent offensive backboard with Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland. Each player can create off the dribble, and they are unselfish enough to recognize when the other player is hot and to let the hot hand rule the day. Mitchell and Garland have been an excellent backcourt, and it has been tough for the Heat.
Who should Davion Mitchell be playing against? When he’s matched up against Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland has it easy. Conversely, if Davion Mitchell ends up on Darius Garland, the Cavaliers know it’s Donovan Mitchell’s time to shine. The two-headed monster in the back court has made choosing defensive assignments tough for Erik Spoelstra and the Miami Heat.
Ways to Bet this Game
The OddsTrader computer projects a 109-102 win by the Cleveland Cavaliers. That gives an advantage to taking Miami on the spread. The expected value of taking +8.5 for Miami is +2.9%, as they are given a 55% cover probability. Situationally, this also makes sense, too with Miami coming off an embarrassing loss, and having their season on the line.
With a projected total of 211, and a posted total of 210.5, the OddsTrader computer has not found an edge on the total. With a cover probability of only 50%, the expected value on betting the total with these projections is minus 2%, and the OddsTrader computer suggests that you pass on betting the total for this game.
Still, the computer projections have still identified plenty of ways for you to get action. Some of the favorite props that they have had are Duncan Robinson under 1.5 3s made. This makes sense because Robinson has been struggling to get on the floor against the dynamic back court of Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, because Robinson’s defensive inability is too easily exploited by Cleveland.
The computer projections also like Darius Garland to go over 22.5 points plus assists. This allows you to factor for whoever Davion Mitchell covers. We know that if Garland is covered by Davion Mitchell, he will not press the issue yet will get his teammates involved and look for them with the assist. If Garland gets to attack Tyler Herro, he will get easy scores and put up plenty of points.
Finally, the OddsTrader computer likes Kel’el Ware to go over 12.5 points, rebounds, and assists. The Miami Heat will need Kel’el Ware to match the Cavaliers’ athletic frontcourt of Evan Mobley and Jarett Allen. Because Ware is one of the few guys that can match them for athleticism, the Heat will be relying on him. This means that Ware will get plenty of minutes, making it so much easier for him to go over this prop. He averaged 16 PRA during the year. He will definitely go over this number tonight.
NBA Best Bets & Props
- Miami Heat +8.5 (-106) at BetMGM
- Duncan Robinson Under 1.5 3s made (-130) at BetMGM (check our BetMGM Review)
- Darius Garland Over 22.5 (-122) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- Khalil Ware Over 12.5 points, rebounds and assists (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
