With no NBA on the slate, college basketball is where the money will be made tonight. I asked the AI Model for its favorite three bets on tonight’s slate. Here’s what it came up with.
Picks Summary
- Memphis -4 (-110) at Bet365
- Marquette -13.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Oklahoma-Michigan Over 150.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Memphis Tigers vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Wednesday, December 18, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at John Paul Jones Arena
The AI Model thinks Memphis will add a 69-63 win over Virginia tonight. Meanwhile, you can find Memphis at -5 via Bet365. A six-point win would help cover the -5 line. Take Memphis against the spread.
Virginia’s Offense Looks Horrible!
The Virginia Cavaliers have shot 38.1% from three. But that’s about all they’ve done well this season on offense.
Virginia has turned the ball over 20.1% of the time. The Cavaliers have also added only 24.2% of offensive rebounds and rarely get to the foul line. Additionally, Virginia has shot just 48.1% from inside the arc.
That won’t be good, especially with Memphis holding teams to 49.2% from two-point range.
The Tigers Are Selective!
The Memphis Tigers don’t make many threes, but they know when to. Memphis ranks 300th in 3PA/FGA but has nailed 44.3% from downtown this season.
The Tigers know when to settle for the three and when to be aggressive at the rim. So, although Virginia is good at limiting fouls, you can still expect Memphis to get to the foul line more frequently and earn more possessions due to fewer turnovers.
Give me Memphis at -4.
NCAAB Pick: Memphis -4 (-110) at Bet365
Butler Bulldogs vs. Marquette Golden Eagles
Wednesday, December 18, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum
The AI Model has Marquette earning an 82-64 win over Butler tonight. However, on Caesars, you’ll find Marquette at -13.5. Consider Marquette tonight.
Butler’s Turnover Problems
The Butler Bulldogs have turned the ball over 18.6% of the time. That rate could worsen against Marquette, who have forced 23.3% of turnovers per game this year.
Ultimately, Marquette hasn’t defended well inside the arc. However, Butler has also shot just 48,6% from two-point range this season. Marquette should be able to overcome its inconsistent defense around the paint tonight.
More Possessions Equal More Points
As suggested, Butler will lose many possessions due to high turnovers, but that won’t be the case for Marquette.
The Golden Eagles have turned the ball over below 14% of the time and will face a Butler defense earning just 12.3% of turnovers.
Ultimately, Marquette will get way more shots up and is already the more effective shooting team, hitting 33.6% from deep and 59% from inside the arc.
Follow the AI Model and back Marquette against the spread.
NCAAB Pick: Marquette -13.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Michigan Wolverines vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Wednesday, December 18, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Spectrum Center
The AI Model thinks Michigan and Oklahoma will combine for 152 points. However, Caesars is carrying a total of 150.5. The Over looks to be the play in this one.
Lots Of Offensive Rebounds For Both Teams!
The Oklahoma Sooners have already shot the ball well. They’ve hit 36.4% from deep and 57.5% from inside the arc. In addition, Oklahoma has also nailed 78.9% of foul shots.
More importantly, Oklahoma has limited turnovers to 16.4% and has gained 30.5% of offensive rebounds.
Those offensive rebounds will be valuable, especially with Michigan allowing 32.6% of offensive rebounds on defense. Ultimately, Oklahoma should get many second chances, and with the shooting precision that they’ve had, a second chance will be all they’ll need to score more points.
Meanwhile, Michigan has grabbed 36.2% of offensive rebounds, while Oklahoma has allowed 31.8% of offensive rebounds on defense. Like Oklahoma, Michigan should be active on the offensive glass and earn second chances.
Michigan’s Shot-Making Inside
The Wolverines have also hit 61% from inside the arc this season. That ranks 7th in all of college basketball. Meanwhile, Oklahoma has allowed 52.1% from inside the arc.
Michigan likely has no problems scoring inside. After all, it’s unlikely Michigan gets to the foul line as much as Oklahoma. But that just means Oklahoma will get more foul shot attempts and Michigan will earn more easy buckets.
Let’s back the Over in this game.
NCAAB Pick: Over 150.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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