There are so many intriguing non-conference matchups on tonight’s college basketball slate. Therefore, I asked the AI Model for its favorite bets in some popular games, with the best NCAAB odds available. All of the info is below.
Picks Summary
- Duke -2.5 (-110) at Bet365
- Mississippi State -5.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Texas -2.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Auburn Tigers vs. Duke Blue Devils
Wednesday, December 04, 2024 – 09:15 PM ET at Cameron Indoor Stadium
The AI Model believes Duke will add a three-point win over Auburn at home. As a 2.5-point favorite, you’ll want to consider siding with Duke.
An Insane Showdown!
According to KenPom, the Auburn Tigers are the No. 1 offense. On the other hand, Duke is the No. 1 defense.
Ultimately, it’s unlikely Auburn gets to the foul line at a high rate. It’s also hard to imagine Auburn shooting over 65% from the field inside the arc against Duke.
Duke has held teams to 40.3% from inside this season, so that will be an exciting matchup to watch tonight. Duke still has the edge on the defensive glass heading into tonight’s game, too.
How Duke Can Capitalize
The Duke Blue Devils are also not getting to the foul line much this season. However, the Blue Devils should win the turnover battle, especially since Auburn has added just 16% of turnovers per game this season.
Additionally, Auburn has allowed teams to shoot 33.9% from deep. Duke takes threes at a super high rate and has hit them more than 36% of the time.
At home, Duke should be comfortable from long range. This will be the difference maker. Side with the AI Model and take Duke at -2.5.
NCAAB Pick: Duke -2.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Wednesday, December 04, 2024 – 09:15 PM ET at Humphrey Coliseum
The AI Model thinks Mississippi State will add a 78-72 win over Pittsburgh tonight. That said, Mississippi State is a 5.5-point favorite at Caesars and has the value in tonight’s showdown.
Mississippi State Needs To Win The Turnover Battle
It’s not an option. Mississippi State must win the turnover battle against Pittsburgh to win tonight’s game.
After all, Mississippi State has totaled 22.1% of turnovers per game this season, while Pittsburgh has only added 17.5%. The Bulldogs must win in this area if they’d like to win this game.
That said, it’s more likely they do. The Bulldogs have turned the ball over just 11.8% of the time this season, ranking second in all college basketball.
Can Pittsburgh Sustain Success Inside?
The Pittsburgh Panthers have scored 60.2% from inside the arc this season. It’s hard to imagine Pittsburgh can keep this rate up, especially going up against a Mississippi State defense that has held teams to a 47.6% field goal percentage from inside the arc.
The Bulldogs foul a lot and don’t defend the three exceptionally well. But if Pittsburgh can miss a couple of shots inside the arc here and there, the Bulldogs will come out on top.
I’ll take my chances with Miss State at -5.5.
NCAAB Pick: Mississippi State -5.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Texas Longhorns vs. NC State Wolfpack
Wednesday, December 04, 2024 – 09:15 PM ET at Lenovo Center
The AI Model thinks Texas will escape against North Carolina State with a three-point win. That said, you can find Texas at -2.5 via Caesars. That’s where the value is.
The Struggle Is Real!
The North Carolina State Wolfpack have shot just 29.5% from three. However, most shots from the Wolfpack come from inside the arc.
That said, North Carolina State has shot 56.1% from inside the arc. That’s great, except that the Wolfpack are facing a Texas defense that ranks No. 1 in college basketball, allowing teams to shoot just 38.2% from inside the arc this season.
It’ll be hard for the Wolfpack to score consistently tonight.
Could Texas Be More Aggressive?
The Texas Longhorns have already hit a 56.7% effective field goal percentage while allowing only 12.9% of turnovers per game this season.
The area where they’re not good is on the offensive glass. The Longhorns have earned just 28.3% of offensive rebounds.
However, that could change tonight. After all, North Carolina State has allowed 33.2% of offensive rebounds. There’s a good chance Texas adds more offensive rebounding opportunities and second-chance points. Take Texas at -2.5.
NCAAB Pick: Texas -2.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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