While tomorrow’s slate will be jam-packed, there are still some exciting games on tonight’s college basketball slate. I’ve used the AI Model to help identify three best bets for tonight’s games.
Let’s get right to it!
Picks Summary
- Marquette -1.5 (-110)
- Dayton ML (-135)
- Michigan -2.5 (-110)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Marquette Golden Eagles vs. Villanova Wildcats
Friday, February 21, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Finneran Pavilion
The AI Model believes Marquette will escape Villanova with a 73-69 win on the road. Meanwhile, Marquette is only -1.5 against the spread at most sportsbooks. Consider taking Marquette against the spread tonight.
Marquette’s Keys on Offense
The Marquette Golden Eagles must do two things to win this game on offense.
Marquette needs to continue limiting turnovers. The Golden Eagles have allowed only 13.2% of turnovers per game, one of the best rates in college basketball.
Meanwhile, Villanova has forced just 16.4% of turnovers. That’s major for Marquette.
Beyond that, Marquette hasn’t shot it super well from downtown this year. The Golden Eagles have reliable shooters but have hit only 32.4% from downtown. That needs to change against a Villanova defense that ranks 207th in three-point percentage.
Defending The Three
The Marquette defense has held teams to 30.9% from downtown this season. That’s big news, especially with Villanova shooting nearly 40% from downtown this season. If Marquette can limit Villanova from downtown and keep the Wildcats away from the foul line consistently, Marquette will likely be able to keep Villanova away from its offensive averages.
Take a chance with Marquette at -1.5. They’re the better team despite being on the road.
NCAAB Pick: Marquette -1.5 (-110) at Bet365
Dayton Flyers vs. Loyola Chicago Ramblers
Friday, February 21, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Gentile Arena
The AI Model believes Dayton will earn a 71-69 win on the road over Loyola Chicago tonight. That said, you can find Dayton at -135 on the moneyline using Bet365. That’s the play in this game.
Dayton From Downtown!
The Dayton Flyers have already shot a 53.7% effective field goal percentage. It’s mostly because Dayton has nailed 36.2% from downtown and 53.3% from inside the arc.
The offense can flat-out score. Ultimately, the Flyers won’t dominate the offensive glass. Yet, they should be able to hit more open looks, especially from three.
Loyola Chicago has allowed teams to hit nearly 34% from deep. The Ramblers have also fouled at a rate slightly higher than the D1 average.
The Flyers shouldn’t have too many issues finding ways to score tonight.
Loyola Isn’t Disciplined!
The Loyola Chicago Ramblers can shoot just as well as Dayton. However, this season, they have turned the ball over 18% of the time and hit just 67.2% from the foul line.
That’s where the Ramblers can’t hang offensively and why Dayton should escape with a win outright.
Loyola Chicago will not see the foul line as often and will not make as many shot attempts as Dayton. Take a chance with Dayton at -135 betting odds.
NCAAB Pick: Dayton ML (-135) at Bet365
Michigan State Spartans vs. Michigan Wolverines
Friday, February 21, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Crisler Center
The AI Model suggests Michigan will defeat Michigan State in this Big Ten rivalry game, 77-74. Meanwhile, the Michigan Wolverines are -2.5 against the spread, which would give Michigan the advantage in this scenario.
Michigan State’s Offense Isn’t Elite!
The Michigan State Spartans have only shot 29.1% from deep and 55.5% from inside the arc. While they have done well from the foul line, they have still turned the ball over 17% of the time and have an effective field goal percentage of 51.7%.
You can still expect the Spartans to add a bunch of offensive rebounds. However, don’t expect the Spartans to see the foul line as much.
After all, the Wolverines have held teams to a 28.3 FTA/FGA ratio, which ranks 65th in the nation.
Can Michigan Keep The Turnovers Down?
The one thing that’s holding Michigan back is the turnovers. The Wolverines have turned the ball over 20.2% of the time, which ranks 331st in the nation.
That said, the Spartans have forced only 16.4% of turnovers. As long as Michigan doesn’t have too many unforced errors, the Wolverines should limit turnovers and find more success offensively.
In addition, the Wolverines have shot 36% from deep and 59.1% from inside the arc. They’re way more balanced offensively. At home, that should help them escape with the win and cover.
Let’s roll with the Wolverines at -2.5.
NCAAB Pick: Michigan -2.5 (-110) at Bet365
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