There are so many exciting games on tonight’s college basketball slate. It can certainly get overwhelming. That’s why I went to the AI Model and found three best bets using its projections.
Take a look and follow along below.
Picks Summary
- Duke -8.5 (-110)
- Missouri -2 (-110)
- BYU-Arizona Under 154.5 (-110)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Duke Blue Devils vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
Saturday, February 22, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Madison Square Garden
The AI Model believes Duke will add a ten-point win at home against Illinois tonight. The Blue Devils are only -8.5 via Bet365 and are one of the best plays on tonight’s board using the AI Model.
Will Illinois Continue To Chuck Up Threes?
The Illinois Fighting Illini have added a 52.2% effective field goal percentage. This is a good number, but nothing significant. Ultimately, it’s because Illinois has hit just 31.2% from downtown. The worst part about that is the fact that Illinois still takes a lot of threes.
They’re getting a lot of bad possessions, taking threes that aren’t falling.
Meanwhile, Duke ranks No. 1 in the nation in two-point defense. If Illinois misses threes, it will likely miss inside the arc, too.
Duke Should Have More Shots
The Illinois Fighting Illini don’t force many turnovers. In fact, they have forced below 13% of turnovers per game.
While Illinois can defend at a high level, the few turnovers will allow Duke to take more shots and score more basketball.
Duke doesn’t consistently get to the foul line, but it has been much better from downtown. In comparison, the Blue Devils have also shot better from inside the arc.
I’ll roll with Duke at -8.5. They’re a top seed in the projected March Madness tournament for a reason.
NCAAB Pick: Duke -8.5 (-110) at Bet365
Missouri Tigers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
Saturday, February 22, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Bud Walton Arena
The AI Model believes Missouri will earn a three-point win on the road against Arkansas, 76-73. Meanwhile, Missouri is just -2 against the spread at most sportsbooks. Think about backing the Tigers tonight against the spread.
Missouri Is Rolling!
The Missouri Tigers are coming off a monster win over Alabama on Wednesday, where they scored 110 points.
The offense is now ranked No. 8 in the nation. Ultimately, Missouri is getting to the foul line at a high rate and has hit 37.1% from deep and 56.7% from inside the arc this season.
The team also gets a high rate of offensive rebounds and turns the ball over just 15% of the time.
It won’t be easy to score on Arkansas. But clearly, the offense has had no problems playing together over the last few weeks.
Can Arkansas Take Advantage On The Offensive Glass?
The Arkansas Razorbacks have been competitive and should keep tonight’s game close. That said, Arkansas has only hit 33.2% from deep and 54.2% from inside the arc.
The offense doesn’t compare to what Missouri offers. In addition, Arkansas has added 27.2% of offensive rebounds. It’s unlikely the Razorbacks can even take advantage of Missouri’s poor defensive rebounding rate.
Let’s roll with Missouri. They’ll out-score Arkansas in a hard-fought game on the road.
NCAAB Pick: Missouri -2 (-110) at Bet365
BYU Cougars vs. Arizona Wildcats
Saturday, February 22, 2025 – 10:00 PM ET at McKale Memorial Center
The AI Model suggests BYU and Arizona will combine for 154 points in tonight’s game. However, the total is stuck at 154.5 at Bet365. Therefore, you should consider the under 154.5 points option.
Arizona’s Lockdown Defense
The Arizona Wildcats currently rank 9th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They have limited teams to a 46.9% effective field goal percentage, allowing them to hit just 31.3% from deep and 46.9% from inside the arc.
In addition, Arizona rarely puts teams at the foul line and also allows just 27.4% of offensive rebounds per game this season.
BYU’s Poor Three-Point Defense Won’t Matter
The BYU Cougars have just one defense blemish: They’ve allowed teams to hit 34.5% from downtown this season.
That said, Arizona has only nailed 31% of its three-point attempts and ranks 311th in college basketball. The Wildcats won’t be able to take advantage of BYU’s one area of weakness: defense.
Meanwhile, the Cougars have limited teams to 24.8% of offensive rebounds and have also kept fouls down just as much as Arizona.
This game will likely be lower-scoring. Take the under at -110 betting odds.
NCAAB Pick: Under 154.5 (-110) at Bet365
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