Like in the NBA, it’s a quiet slate in college basketball. With less than ten D1 matchups, there’s not much to choose from at the top-rated sportsbooks. However, the AI Model has highlighted some value in three games. I’ll discuss them below.
Picks Summary
- South Carolina State -1.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
- Norfolk State -3 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- Baylor -22.5 (-110) at Bet365
Charleston Southern Buccaneers vs. South Carolina State Bulldogs
Monday, December 09, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Smith-Hammond-Middleton Memorial Center
The AI Model says South Carolina State will earn a two-point win over Charleston Southern tonight. South Carolina State is -1.5 at Caesars Sportsbook. With a two-point win, the Bulldogs would cash against the spread.
South Carolina State Will Earn More Turnovers
The Charleston Southern Buccaneers have shot just 32.1% from three and 50% from two. The offense is below average, especially with a 56.6% rate at the foul line this season. That surely won’t help.
If Charleston Southern misses a shot and turns the ball over more than 20% of the time, it’ll be hard to win on the road. With South Carolina State adding 21% of turnovers per game, this has a legitimate chance of happening.
Charleston Southern’s Pitiful Defense
Charleston Southern is also a worse defense. The Buccaneers have allowed a 55.4% effective field goal percentage, earning just 13.6% of turnovers.
The Bulldogs will likely get more shots up and ultimately earn better looks from the floor.
The Pick
Give me South Carolina State at -1.5.
NCAAB Pick: South Carolina State -1.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Hofstra Pride vs. Norfolk State Spartans
Monday, December 09, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Joseph G. Echols Hall
The AI Model thinks Norfolk State will escape at home, 69-65 against Hofstra. At Bet365, Norfolk State is -3, meaning there’s value in the Spartans tonight.
Where’s Hofstra’s Offense?
The Hofstra Pride have shot 32.2% from three and 48.2% from inside the arc. The Pride have also earned just 25.3% of offensive rebounds and have turned the ball over more than 20% of the time. The offense is not getting the job done despite the team being 7-3 on the season. Consider Hofstra slightly lucky for being 7-3. This offense isn’t good enough to compete with better teams like Norfolk.
At the end of the day, Norfolk has held teams to 32.2% from three and 50% from inside the arc. It should be another difficult night for Hofstra from the field, especially on the road.
Norfolk State Will Win At The Line
The foul line will be the difference for Norfolk State. Hofstra ranks 250th in FTA/FGA, while Norfolk State has added a 35.9 ratio on offense that ranks 114th in college basketball.
It’s way more likely Norfolk State will get aggressive and see the foul line more. In addition, the Spartans have nailed 78.8% from the foul line. If they can be this efficient from the foul line tonight, they’ll squeak by with a cover.
The Pick
Grab the Spartans at -3 and ride with the AI Model.
NCAAB Pick: Norfolk State -3 (-110) at Bet365
Abilene Christian Wildcats vs. Baylor Bears
Monday, December 09, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Foster Pavilion
The AI Model suggests Baylor will add a 23-point win over Abilene Christian tonight. As a 22.5-point favorite at Bet365, Baylor is the play against the spread.
Baylor Will Be Fine!
The Baylor Bears are 5-3 on the season. After a loss to UConn, Baylor has now allowed 39.8% from three and 53.1% from inside the arc. However, they’ll have a much easier go-around against Abilene Christian.
It’s not because ACU is bad. Abilene Christian is 6-3 on the season. However, the Wildcats have shot 32.7% from three and 51.3% from inside the arc. The competition won’t be as fierce as teams like UConn, Tennessee and St. John’s. They’ve had a difficult schedule to start the year. Plus, while Baylor is poor at defending threes, ACU doesn’t take many. They’re 358th in the nation in 3PA/FGA this season.
Baylor’s Shot-Making Will Be The Difference
The Baylor Bears will face an ACU squad that has allowed 45% from downtown. In addition, the Wildcats have allowed one of the highest foul rates in college basketball. Baylor isn’t always aggressive and hasn’t been to the foul line at a high rate this season. That’ll change tonight.
Ultimately, Baylor should be money from three. The Bears have already added 37.9% from downtown this year. Plus, Baylor has drained more than 53% of shots from inside the arc.
The Pick
Consider Baylor at -22.5 per our AI Model.
NCAAB Pick: Baylor -22.5 (-110) at Bet365
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