Today’s college basketball slate doesn’t include many power-five conference games, but a few are still scheduled. I asked the AI Model for its thoughts on some of the bigger games on the slate. Here’s what you should consider at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Western Kentucky +1.5 (-110)
- Jacksonville State -1.5 (-110)
- Ohio State ML (-140)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Kennesaw State Owls
Thursday, February 06, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at KSU Convocation Center
The AI Model predicts Western Kentucky will lose to Kennesaw State, 79-78. However, the Hilltoppers are 1.5-point underdogs, meaning they’d cover a one-point loss.
WKU Needs To Win The Turnover Battle!
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers haven’t been an elite offense this season. In fact, the Hilltoppers have shot a 49.2% effective field goal percentage, which ranks 252nd in the nation.
Still, the Hilltoppers have only turned the ball over 16.5% of the time and have hit 73.1% from the foul line. With Kennesaw State fouling at a very high rate, that free-throwing shooting percentage should come into play.
WKU has hit just 32.5% from deep and 49.5% from inside, which isn’t good. But at least it’s likely they’ll get a lot of opportunities with a low turnover rate.
Kennesaw State Is No Better On Offense
The Kennesaw State Owls have shot an effective field goal percentage of just 47.8%. That’s 296th in college basketball. Even worse, Kennesaw State has turned the ball over 20.2% of the time. The Owls pride themselves on the offensive glass, gaining 34.7% of offensive rebounds.
However, Western Kentucky has limited teams to 27.2% of offensive rebounds. Beyond that, the Hilltoppers have held teams to 29.6% from deep. When Kennesaw State misses threes, it won’t be able to grab the misses as much.
The Pick
Let’s take Western Kentucky at +1.5 here.
NCAAB Pick: Western Kentucky +1.5 (-110) at Bet365
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Thursday, February 06, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Pete Mathews Coliseum
The AI Model believes Jacksonville State will survive Middle Tennessee State with a two-point home win. The Gamecocks are only -1.5 against the spread and would cover with a two-point win.
Middle Tennessee Could Struggle Down The Stretch
The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders have shot just 32.2% from three and 52.7% from inside the arc this season. That equates to an effective field goal percentage of 51%, which is still above average.
The Blue Raiders will likely limit turnovers at a high rate in this game. However, it’s unlikely the Blue Raiders will get to the foul line consistently. In addition, when Middle Tennessee gets to the line, the Blue Raiders have drilled only 67.4% from the charity stripe.
That’s not ideal down the stretch in a potentially tight game on the road.
You Can Trust Jacksonville State
On the other hand, Jacksonville State has nailed 76.4% from the foul line this season. The Gamecocks have also hit 33.8% from downtown and have earned more offensive rebounds.
While Jacksonville State could lose the turnover battle, it won’t be by much, mainly because it has limited turnovers to below 16% this season.
The Pick
Let’s side with the AI Model and take the Gamecocks at -1.5. Foul shooting will be key!
NCAAB Pick: Jacksonville State -1.5 (-110) at Bet365
Maryland Terrapins vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Thursday, February 06, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Schottenstein Center
The AI Model thinks Ohio State will defeat Maryland at home, 74-72. Meanwhile, you can find Ohio State at -140 on the moneyline. There’s value with the Buckeyes.
Maryland Will Get Shots Up, But…
The Maryland Terrapins have shot a 55.1% effective field goal percentage, ranking inside the top 20 in adjusted efficiency, according to Kenpom. Additionally, Maryland has only turned the ball over 14.7% of the time. That should continue against Ohio State.
That said, Ohio State has still limited teams to 28.7% from deep and 48.3% from inside the arc. Furthermore, the Buckeyes have limited opponents to 28.9% of offensive rebounds. Ohio State has had trouble with fouling, but Maryland isn’t very aggressive on offense to begin with. That favors Ohio State.
How Ohio State Can Escape With a Win
The Ohio State Buckeyes aren’t as good of an offense, according to Kenpom. However, they’re facing a Maryland defense that has only held teams to 31.5% from deep and 47.5% from inside the arc.
It’s likely Ohio State will drill more threes in this game. Beyond that, the Buckeyes are also much better at getting to the foul line, where they’ve hit more than 74% from the line this season.
The Pick
I’ll back the home team to survive here.
NCAAB Pick: Ohio State ML (-140) at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
