While tonight’s college basketball is relatively small, a few matchups still caught the AI Model’s attention. Here are three best bets to consider for tonight’s college basketball slate.
Picks Summary
- Marquette -9.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
- Michigan +4.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- Iowa -3.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Villanova Wildcats vs. Marquette Golden Eagles
Friday, January 24, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum
The AI Model predicts Marquette will add an 11-point win against Villanova at home tonight. Meanwhile, you can find Marquette at -9.5 right now.
Can Villanova Get To The Foul Line?
The Villanova Wildcats have one of the best offenses in the nation. However, it would be even better if the Wildcats could get to the foul line. Villanova ranks 322 in FTA/FGA. That won’t be helpful when Villanova struggles to shoot the ball from the field.
Ultimately, the Wildcats could end up struggling tonight when they face Marquette. The Golden Eagles have allowed just 30.3% from downtown and have gained nearly 24% of turnovers.
Villanova has hit more than 40% from downtown. But how long will that last? The number could drop against Marquette, who has allowed just 30.3% from three. Without good looks and a low amount of foul shots, Villanova won’t have it easy.
Marquette Protects The Basketball
The best trait about Marquette is its ability to limit turnovers. The Golden Eagles force 23.6% of turnovers on defense but give up just 13.4% on offense. That’s elite stuff, and it’s one of the main reasons Marquette is 16-3 on the season.
Ultimately, Villanova doesn’t force many turnovers itself. The Wildcats have also allowed teams to shoot 36% from downtown this season. Marquette hasn’t shot the three-ball well, hitting only 32.9% from downtown. But they’ve got a bunch of confident shooters who should be open, knowing Villanova has allowed teams to shoot 36% from three this season.
The Pick
I’m all in on Marquette at -9.5.
NCAAB Pick: Marquette -9.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Michigan Wolverines vs. Purdue Boilermakers
Friday, January 24, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Mackey Arena
The AI Model predicts Michigan will only lose by four to Purdue on the road tonight. That said, Michigan is +4.5 against the spread. That would be enough to cover a four-point loss.
Michigan’s Dominance Inside!
The Michigan Wolverines have shot a 58.9% effective field goal percentage. That includes 37.7% from deep and 60.8% from inside the arc. Michigan won’t get easy looks from downtown. However, the inside will be Michigan’s bread and butter.
The Wolverines will face a Purdue defense that ranks 228th in two-point field goal percentage. As long as Michigan can keep turnovers down, the Wolverines should be very effective offensively, especially inside.
Purdue Can Be Stopped!
The Purdue Boilermakers have shot a 56.3% effective field goal percentage while hitting 38.4% from three and 55.4% from inside the arc. These are great numbers, and not many teams can stop Purdue.
However, Michigan can. The Wolverines have already held teams to 29.7% from deep and 45.5% from inside the arc. Michigan has also blocked opponents 11.5% of the time and has been held to a 45.1% effective field goal percentage.
Let’s give Michigan some respect on defense.
The Pick
I’m riding with Michigan on the road against Purdue at +4.5.
NCAAB Pick: Michigan +4.5 (-110) at Bet365
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Friday, January 24, 2025 – 09:00 PM ET at Carver-Hawkeye Arena
The AI Model predicts Iowa will win 86-81 at home over Penn State. Since Iowa is only -3.5, the best play in this game is taking Iowa against the spread.
Can Penn State Keep Up?
The Penn State Nittany Lions have shot a 54.8% effective field goal percentage. They’ve hit 34.8% from three and 56.2% from inside the arc, though they don’t take a ton of threes.
Ultimately, Penn State will get good looks inside the arc. Just don’t expect Penn State to reach the foul line much since Iowa ranks 23rd in FTA/FGA on defense this season.
Iowa’s Shot-Making Will Be On Full Display!
The Iowa Hawkeyes have drilled 38.7% from three and 59.1% from inside the arc. They’ve also turned the ball over just 14.1% of the time, which is crucial since Penn State makes a living earning turnovers.
If the Nittany Lions can’t earn turnovers, it’ll be hard for Penn State to get stops. Iowa has turned the ball over just 14.1% of the time, which is 13th-best in the nation.
The Pick
The AI Model and I both like Iowa to escape with a win and cover.
NCAAB Pick: Iowa -3.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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