Now that the conference slate is underway, so many great games are on the horizon tonight. We’ve got a bunch of high-major matchups to consider at the top-rated sportsbooks, specifically in the Big Ten. I asked the AI Model for its favorite three bets for tonight and released them below.
Picks Summary
- Iowa +6.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
- Michigan State +1.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- Georgetown ML (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Friday, January 03, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Kohl Center
The AI Model believes Iowa will fall to Wisconsin, 84-79, tonight. That’s a five-point win for Wisconsin. However, Caesars Sportsbook has Iowa at +6.5 against the spread. Iowa would cover despite a five-point loss.
Iowa Will Get Shots Up
The Iowa Hawkeyes have shot 38.3% from three and 60.2% from inside the arc this season. They’re ranked No. 4 in the nation in effective field goal percentage and have turned the ball over just 13.6% of the time.
The few turnovers should be the main factor in this game. Iowa shoots at a high percentage and doesn’t turn the ball over. That’s a recipe for success.
Wisconsin Continues To Chuck Up Threes!
The Wisconsin Badgers are known for having many elite three-point shooters. This year that hasn’t been the case. While the Badgers have taken a high rate of threes, they’ve only hit 32.5% from downtown this year.
That’s not good news, especially since Iowa has limited opponents to 28.3% from downtown. If Wisconsin continues to chuck up threes at the rate it has been, the Badgers won’t win this game.
The Pick
Give me Iowa at +6.5.
NCAAB Pick: Iowa +6.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Michigan State Spartans vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Friday, January 03, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Schottenstein Center
The AI Model likes Ohio State to add a 75-74 win over Michigan State at home tonight. However, Michigan State is +1.5 and would cover the one-point loss against the spread in this scenario. Consider the ranked road team here.
No Second Chances For Ohio State!
The Ohio State Buckeyes have a top-24 rated offense, according to Kenpom. They’ve shot 39.3% from three and 57% from inside the arc. However, the team has hit below 70% from the foul line and has earned only 27.5% of offensive rebounds.
What happens when Ohio State can’t make shots? They’ll struggle to add second chances and will come up empty-handed. This will also likely happen, especially since Michigan State has held teams to 23.5% offensive rebounds and 30% from three.
Opponents have hit just 47% from inside the arc against Michigan State, too.
Michigan State Can Win On The Foul Line
It’s not like Michigan State will add many more wide-open looks. It’ll be a tight game. That’s why the spread is stuck at 1.5.
That said, Ohio State has a FTA/FGA ratio of 38.7 on defense, and Michigan State has a 39.2 ratio on offense. The Spartans should find the foul line more frequently, propelling them to victory.
The Pick
Take Michigan State at +1.5 using the AI Model.
NCAAB Pick: Michigan State +1.5 (-110) at Bet365
Xavier Musketeers vs. Georgetown Hoyas
Friday, January 03, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena
The AI Model predicts Georgetown will add a 76-73 win over Xavier tonight. Yet, you can find Georgetown at -110 on the moneyline. A projected three-point win proves there’s value in the Hoyas tonight.
Georgetown’s Defense Could Be The Difference!
The Xavier Musketeers have shot 40.6% from downtown and 51.9% from inside the arc. Xavier shoots threes at an average rate but doesn’t add many offensive rebounds. On the other hand, Georgetown has held opponents to 32.6% from three and just 41.8% from inside the arc. The Hoyas have also held teams to 29.2% of offensive rebounds and have added 21.2% of turnovers.
Georgetown defends without fouling and doesn’t give up many second chances. It’s unlikely Xavier shoots lights out from three on the road in Capital One Arena.
Knocking Down Open Shots Will Be Key
The Georgetown Hoyas have shot only 31.8% from downtown this year. However, Xavier has allowed 35.8% from three throughout the season.
Georgetown should get some quality looks from the three-point range. The Hoyas have been inconsistent to from deep this year, but with wide-open looks, you’d like to think these guys can knock down more shots.
The Pick
Let’s roll with Georgetown on the moneyline at -110.
NCAAB Pick: Georgetown ML (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
