Tonight’s college basketball slate includes three games with top-25 opponents. Before heading to the top-rated sportsbooks, I asked the AI Model for its picks and predictions for all three games and discussed them below.
Picks Summary
- Illinois -4.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
- Memphis -6 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- Oregon +4.5 (-110) at BetMGM (check our BetMGM Review)
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Thursday, January 30, 2025 – 08:30 PM ET at Pinnacle Bank Arena
The AI Model predicts Illinois will beat Nebraska by five points, 80-75. Meanwhile, Illinois is only -4.5 against the spread at most books. Consider Illinois tonight.
Can Illinois Shoot Better From Three?
The Illinois Fighting Illini have added a 52.2% effective field goal percentage but still haven’t shot it well from three this season.
The Fighting Illini have hit below 32% from deep this year but still make many threes. They have confident shooters and will now face a Nebraska defense that has watched teams shoot 34.1% from deep this season.
Illinois could break out from downtown tonight.
Don’t Count On Nebraska’s Offense
The Nebraska Cornhuskers have shot a 52.2% effective field goal percentage. That’s not entirely bad. However, Nebraska has only gained 27.5% of offensive rebounds and will take on an Illinois defense that ranks 7th in effective field goal percentage.
Nebraska will miss some shots and will struggle to earn second chances, primarily since Illinois has held teams to 23.8% of offensive rebounds per game.
The Pick
Take a chance with Illinois at -4.5 here.
NCAAB Pick: Illinois -4.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Memphis Tigers vs. Tulane Green Wave
Thursday, January 30, 2025 – 09:00 PM ET at Devlin Fieldhouse
The AI Model predicts Memphis will add a seven-point win against Tulane on the road. Meanwhile, Memphis is a 6-point favorite. A seven-point win would earn a cover here.
Keep The Turnovers Down, Memphis!
The Memphis Tigers have an elite offense, shooting 39.5% from deep and are very good at getting to the foul line. The one blemish for Memphis is its turnovers. The Tigers have turned the ball over more than 20% of the time. That needs to be corrected against Tulane.
Still, Memphis is great at getting to the foul line, and Tulane allows for a high rate of foul shots. The Tigers should also be strong on the offensive glass since Tulane has allowed 31.6% of offensive rebounds per game this season.
Tulane Can’t Take Advantage On The Glass
The one area where Memphis struggles is on the defensive glass. The Tigers have allowed 34.5% of offensive rebounds per game this season.
However, Tulane has earned only 27.3% of offensive rebounds and will likely not be able to take advantage of the offensive glass. The lack of second chances will not help Tulane escape Memphis here.
The Pick
Take Memphis at -6 per our AI Model.
NCAAB Pick: Memphis -6 (-110) at Bet365
Oregon Ducks vs. UCLA Bruins
Thursday, January 30, 2025 – 10:30 PM ET at Pauley Pavilion
The AI Model thinks Oregon will only lose to UCLA by four points on the road tonight. Yet, Oregon is +4.5. A four-point loss would still cover the +4.5 spread for Oregon in this scenario.
Oregon Must Capitalize At The Foul Line
The Oregon Ducks have a solid offense. They’ve recorded a 53.1% effective field goal percentage, shot 34.2% from three, and shot 54.3% from inside the arc. In addition, the Ducks have turned the ball over 16.5% of the time and have added 30.6% of offensive rebounds. Ultimately, don’t expect Oregon to dominate on the glass. However, it’ll be big if Oregon is able to limit turnovers against UCLA.
The Bruins rank third in the nation in defensive turnover percentage. So, instead of turning the ball over, the Ducks will want to be aggressive and get to the foul line. Oregon is already getting to the foul line at a high rate and will battle a UCLA team that typically fouls at a high rate. That’ll be crucial, as Oregon is shooting 75.5% from the foul line.
Oregon Matches Up Better
While UCLA has the better defense, according to Kenpom, Oregon matches up better defensively.
The Ducks have limited teams to a 47.9% effective field goal percentage and have limited foul shots way more. Beyond that, Oregon has held teams to 31.2% from three and 48.6% from inside the arc and allowed fewer than 30% of offensive rebounds.
UCLA has a good offense but likely won’t see the foul line nearly as much.
The Pick
Give me the Ducks at +4.5.
NCAAB Pick: Oregon +4.5 (-110) at BetMGM
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