Thursday’s are for the Big Ten! There are a few massive games on tonight’s slate, specifically in the Big Ten, and I asked the AI Model for its thoughts on a few of the bigger games and wanted to share them below. Let’s get right to it before heading to the top-rated sportsbooks!
Picks Summary
- Ducks/Buckeyes Over 150.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
- Michigan State -14.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- South Alabama -2 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Oregon Ducks vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Thursday, January 09, 2025 – 06:00 PM ET at Schottenstein Center
The AI Model predicts Ohio State will rally past Oregon 77-74 in tonight’s showdown. However, Caesars Sportsbook has a total of 150.5. With the projected total at 151, the over has the most value.
Oregon’s Fast-Paced Offense Should Excel!
The Oregon Ducks rank 88th in average possession length this year. The Ducks have also hit nearly 35% from downtown and almost 54% from inside the arc this season. They’ve also gotten to the foul line a lot.
That should continue since Ohio State has allowed a 38.7 FTA/FGA this season. That ranks 295th defensively. If Oregon can get fast points and also score at the foul line, the offense will have no trouble scoring at a fast pace.
The Buckeyes Can Hold On!
Ohio State won’t get as many offensive rebounds. However, the Buckeyes have still accumulated a higher field goal percentage. They’ve hit 37.4% from deep and 55.9% from inside the arc this year.
Additionally, the Buckeyes rank No. 1 in the nation in limiting opponent steals. Thus, they’ll get plenty of shots up without being disruptive.
The Pick
Ohio State is strong with the ball and Oregon should be faster and get to the foul line more often. That’s enough to back the over.
NCAAB Pick: Ducks/Buckeyes Over 150.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Washington Huskies vs. Michigan State Spartans
Thursday, January 09, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Breslin Center
The AI Model thinks Michigan State will win by 15 points at home against the Washington Huskies. Yet, Caesars Sportsbook is carrying Michigan State at -14.5. A 15-point win would help the Spartans get the cover.
Don’t Look at Michigan State’s Three-Point Percentage!
The Michigan State Spartans have done a lot of good things on offense. The only place where they’ve lacked is three-point shooting.
That said. The Spartans have only scored about 21% of points from three-point range. They’ve shot 28% from deep throughout the year but don’t take a lot of shots. Instead, Michigan State is shooting 57.2% from inside the arc and 81.3% from the foul line. They also get to the foul line at a high rate.
They’ll be able to have success in all of these areas against Washington.
There’s No Beating Michigan State’s Defense Right Now
Washington has shot just 32.7% from deep and 51.2% from inside the arc. The Huskies have also hit only 66.2% from the foul line and have allowed 12.3% of shots to be blocked this year.
Meanwhile, the Spartans have held teams to a 45.9% effective field goal percentage and have allowed below 25% of offensive rebounds.
The Spartans are in a great position to pull away.
The Pick
Side with Michigan State at -14.5 in this game.
NCAAB Pick: Michigan State -14.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. South Alabama Jaguars
Thursday, January 09, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Mitchell Center
The AI Model predicts South Alabama will defeat Arkansas State by three points at home. At Bet365, you can find South Alabama at just -2. Clearly, there’s some value in the South Alabama Jaguars here.
Arkansas State’s Poor Shooting Will Hurt
The Arkansas State Red Wolves have shot just a 48.1% effective field goal percentage. They’ve hit only 31.7% from three and 48.5% from inside the arc. Additionally, they’ve nailed just 70.3% from the foul line and have allowed more than 10% of shots to be blocked this season.
South Alabama doesn’t always defend the three well. However, the Jaguars have at least held teams to 44.4% from inside. The Jaguars have also earned 22.5% of turnovers and don’t foul very often. With good defense and quality rebounding, South Alabama will be fine defensively against Arkansas State.
Fewer Turnovers For South Alabama
South Alabama doesn’t shoot it any better than Arkansas State. However, the Jaguars have better limited turnovers and have added a 56.2% field goal percentage from inside the arc.
They’ll want to take advantage of Arkansas State’s inability to rebound on the defensive glass. The Red Wolves have allowed 32.2% of offensive rebounds and fouled at a very high rate.
These two areas will help propel South Alabama to victory at home.
The Pick
Take South Alabama at -2 in this exciting SunBelt matchup.
NCAAB Pick: South Alabama -2 (-110) at Bet365
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