It’s already March Madness in college basketball. No, it’s not the NCAA Tournament yet, but there are some insane matchups on tonight’s regular-season slate. Before heading to the top-rated sportsbooks, let’s take a look at the three best bets in college basketball according to our AI Model.
And don’t forget to check out our YouTube channel for more betting advice. Today, our expert covered the Maryland vs. Michigan and Wisconsin vs. Minnesota games!
Picks Summary
- UConn -3.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
- Tennessee -2.5 (-110) at BetMGM (check our BetMGM Review)
- Louisville -14.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Marquette Golden Eagles vs. UConn Huskies
Wednesday, March 05, 2025 – 08:30 PM ET at Gampel Pavilion
The AI Model thinks UConn will earn a 75-69 win at home over Marquette. Meanwhile, UConn is a 3.5-point favorite. The Huskies are the play here.
Will Marquette Take Advantage Of UConn’s Flaws?
The Marquette Golden Eagles have added a 52.3% effective field goal percentage. They’ve struggled from deep but have hit 54.8% from inside the arc.
This isn’t the best matchup for Marquette. After all, they’ve only had success with scoring inside. However, they’ll take on a UConn defense that ranks 16th in college basketball in two-point shot percentage on defense.
Ultimately, Marquette will keep turnovers down but might not take advantage of threes or getting to the foul line. Those are the two flaws of UConn, but they’re also flaws of Marquette.
UConn Must Dominate Inside
Off the bat, the Huskies are the better offense, shooting a 55.7% effective field goal percentage. They’ve hit 35.4% from deep and 57.8% from inside, which is specifically crucial because the Golden Eagles have allowed teams to shoot nearly 52% from inside the arc this season.
In addition, the Huskies have brought down 35% of offensive rebounds. That’s another strong area for UConn, knowing Marquette has allowed more than 30% of offensive rebounds per game.
The Pick
I’m all in on the UConn Huskies tonight.
NCAAB Pick: UConn -3.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Ole Miss Rebels
Wednesday, March 05, 2025 – 09:00 PM ET at The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss
The AI Model suggests Tennessee will earn a four-point win on the road, 71-67, against Ole Miss. Yet, you can still find Tennessee at -2.5. Grab the Volunteers against the spread.
The Vols Will Destroy On The Glass
The Tennessee Volunteers aren’t known for their offense. However, the offense has still done well this season, adding a 52.5% effective field goal percentage.
It might be hard to find some good looks against Ole Miss. However, Tennessee should add a bunch of second chances and more foul shots tonight. Ole Miss has allowed 30.4% of offensive rebounds per game this season, while Tennessee has recorded 36% of offensive rebounds. Additionally, Ole Miss ranks 323rd in college basketball in FTA/FGA ratio.
Tennessee will take advantage.
No Second Chances For Ole Miss!
The Ole Miss Rebels have shot 34.9% from deep and 51.5% from inside the arc, which would work against average defensive opponents. However, according to Kenpom, Tennessee’s defense ranks No. 1 in the nation.
This season, the Vols have limited teams to 27.9% from three and 45.5% from two. Additionally, Ole Miss has added only 24.9% of offensive rebounds. When Ole Miss struggles from the field and doesn’t add many second chances, it’ll be hard to recover.
The Pick
Let’s take a chance with Tennessee at -2.5.
NCAAB Pick: Tennessee -2.5 (-110) at BetMGM
California Golden Bears vs. Louisville Cardinals
Wednesday, March 05, 2025 – 09:00 PM ET at KFC Yum! Center
The AI Model thinks Louisville will win 85-65 at home against the California Golden Bears. Meanwhile, Louisville is just -14.5 against the spread, suggesting it has some value tonight.
California’s Poor Shooting Will Continue!
The California Golden Bears have shot a 48.2% effective field goal percentage. They’ve hit only 32.2% from downtown and 48.2% from inside the arc.
Meanwhile, they’re getting many offensive rebounds and plenty of foul shots. It’s just unlikely that it continues against Louisville. After all, the Cardinals have limited teams to 26.4% offensive rebounds and a low free-throw rate.
Louisville Should Shoot Much Better
Louisville has already outshot California by a wide margin. The Cardinals’ 53.6% effective field goal percentage ranks them 69th in college basketball. They’ve missed countless threes but have still made 57.3% from inside the arc. That said, California has allowed 37.6% from downtown this season, so Louisville will likely get more open looks from three and drain them.
Additionally, the Golden Bears have added only 16.2% of turnovers, have been worse on the defensive glass and have allowed more fouls per game.
The Pick
I’m rolling with the Cardinals tonight at -14.5.
NCAAB Pick: Louisville -14.5 (-110) at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
