It’s March 6, and we’ve got a bunch of exciting conference tournament matchups on the college basketball slate. In addition, there’s also one Big Ten regular-season game that has some hype. Therefore, I went to the AI Model and added three best bets for tonight’s games. Let’s get right to it before heading to the top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- North Alabama -5.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
- Michigan State/Iowa Under 151.5 (-110) at BetMGM (check our BetMGM Review)
- Charlotte/North Texas Over 125.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Jacksonville Dolphins vs. North Alabama Lions
Thursday, March 06, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Flowers Hall
The AI Model thinks North Alabama will earn a 75-68 win over Jacksonville in the semifinal of the ASUN Championship. Meanwhile, North Alabama is -5 and would cover against the spread in this scenario.
It’s Hard To Trust Jacksonville!
The Jacksonville Dolphins have added just 47.6% from inside the arc and have shot a 67.6% free throw rate this season.
Additionally, Jacksonville has turned the ball over 19.4% of the time. The Dolphins are a good three-point shooting team but will take on a North Alabama defense that ranks 87th in defense against the three-point ball.
North Alabama Is More Efficient
The North Alabama Lions have turned the ball over below 13% of the time. It’s one of the best rates in college basketball. They’ll hold onto the ball and ultimately get better shots, specifically from downtown.
Jacksonville has allowed teams to shoot 34.3% from deep, while North Alabama has hit nearly 35% from downtown. Plus, North Alabama should have the same amount of success on the offensive glass while making more shots.
The Pick
Take North Alabama in this semifinal tilt.
NCAAB Pick: North Alabama -5.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Michigan State Spartans vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Thursday, March 06, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Carver-Hawkeye Arena
The AI Model suggests Michigan State and Iowa will combine for 151 points. Meanwhile, the total is at 151.5. Therefore, the Under is the most valuable play in this Big Ten matchup.
Michigan State’s Offense Could Have Some Challenges
The Michigan State Spartans have added a 51% effective field goal percentage, which isn’t elite. However, the team has shot 54% from inside the arc and gets plenty of offensive rebounds. The issue is that Michigan State has shot 29.7% from deep and has turned the ball over nearly 17% of the time.
Iowa should be able to force some turnovers and keep Michigan State away from the foul line. Those two areas would be key for the Hawkeyes to keep Michigan State in check.
Iowa Doesn’t Do The Little Things!
The Iowa Hawkeyes have added just 25.3% of offensive rebounds and a 26.5 FTA/FGA ratio. This is really poor, especially since Michigan State ranks fifth in college basketball in defense per Kenpom.
When Iowa misses more shots than usual, the Hawkeyes won’t be able to add second chances or points with the time stopped.
The Pick
Back the Under 151.5 in this game.
NCAAB Pick: Michigan State/Iowa Under 151.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Charlotte 49ers vs. North Texas Mean Green
Thursday, March 06, 2025 – 09:00 PM ET at The Super Pit
The AI Model thinks Charlotte and North Texas will add 126 points in tonight’s matchup. However, the total is stuck at 125.5. That means there’s value on the Over in this game.
Charlotte Will See The Foul Line A Lot!
The Charlotte 49ers have only shot a 48.4% effective field goal percentage this season. They’re also not so great on the offensive glass. However, the 49ers have limited turnovers to 14.7% and have added one of the highest FTA/FGA in the country.
That’s ideal, especially since North Texas ranks 307th in defensive FTA/FGA. Charlotte should be able to limit turnovers, get shots up, and ultimately get to the foul line a lot in this game. In addition, the 49ers have shot 75.5% from the foul line this season. That’s going to be key.
North Texas Will Have Its Way
The North Texas Mean Green is one of the country’s slowest teams regarding the pace of play. However, they should still be efficient and score at a solid rate. After all, the 49ers have allowed a 54.2% effective field goal percentage and have only added 14.7% of turnovers.
North Texas has shot 36.1% from deep and 51.1% from inside the arc. But ultimately, with Charlotte allowing 56.8% from inside the arc, the Mean Green should see even more success inside.
The Pick
Consider the Over 125.5 in this one.
NCAAB Pick: Charlotte/North Texas Over 125.5 (-110) at Bet365
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