It’s Saturday! You know what that means! There’s a lot of college basketball on the slate tonight. I’ve checked in with the AI Model and found my favorite three bets for the later portion of the slate. Let’s get right to it before heading to our top-rated sportsbooks!
Picks Summary
- UMass -5.5 (-110)
- Saint Louis -4 (-110)
- James Madison +3.5 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Hofstra Pride vs. UMass Minutemen
Saturday, November 16, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Mullins Center
The AI Model believes UMass will sneak by Hofstra with a 76-70 win at home. UMass is a 5.5-point favorite. Therefore, backing the Minutemen against the spread is the way to go.
Hofstra’s Turnovers Will Be An Issue
The Hofstra Pride are 3-0 to begin the season. However, they’ve turned the ball over 21.4% of the time. If this trend continues, Hofstra won’t stay undefeated after tonight. Additionally, Hofstra is just average on the offensive glass and does not get to the foul line at a super high rate.
Hofstra can drain threes at a high rate and has potential against UMass. But inside, it could be a problem scoring. After all, UMass has held opponents to 45.3% from two this year.
Could UMass Get To The Foul Line More?
The UMass Minutemen haven’t been getting to the foul line much this season. However, they’ll take on a Hofstra team that has fouled at a super high rate to begin the season. If UMass stays aggressive on the offensive glass, you’d like to think more fouls will be called.
The Minutemen have added 33.6% of offensive rebounds, and Hofstra has allowed 35.1%. Therefore, I trust UMass to crash the glass and make things happen.
The Pick
Take the Minutemen at -5.5 tonight.
NCAAB Pick: UMass -5.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Loyola Marymount Lions vs. Saint Louis Billikens
Saturday, November 16, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Chaifetz Arena
Our AI Model thinks Saint Louis will earn a 77-72 win over Loyola Marymount. St. Louis is just a four-point favorite but our model expects St. Louis to win by five. Taking St. Louis is the play.
LMU’s First D1 Game Wasn’t Good
The Loyola Marymount Lions shot an effective field goal percentage of 39.2% and added just 12.2% of offensive rebounds while rarely getting to the foul line.
Beyond that, the Lions shot 26.9% from three and 38.2% from inside the arc. I’d be scared to put money on this team after that performance to start the D1 season.
Much Better Scoring From Saint Louis
The Saint Louis Billikens have also played just one D1 game this season. However, at least they shot 35.3% from three and 63% from inside the arc. Despite not getting there often, Saint Louis also hit 80% of foul shots.
That said, we can trust Saint Louis to make more shots, especially in their home building.
The Pick
I’ll ride Saint Louis at -4 with the AI Model. Thank the AI Model when this hits!
NCAAB Pick: Saint Louis -4 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
James Madison Dukes vs. Towson Tigers
Saturday, November 16, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at TU Arena
The AI Model suggests Towson will only defeat James Madison by three points. However, James Madison is a 3.5-point underdog. According to our model, it’s more likely that James Madison will cover the spread.
Towson Stinks On The Glass!
To begin the season, the Towson Tigers have allowed 42.1% of offensive rebounds against D1 opponents. In addition, Towson has an FTA/FGA of 55.7 on defense, which ranks 343rd in the nation. Beyond that, Towson has allowed teams to shoot 59.4% from inside the arc.
James Madison has been dominant in these three areas to begin the season. The Dukes have grabbed 42.7% of offensive rebounds and have been getting to the foul line at a high rate. They’ve also shot 54.4% from inside the arc this season. James Madison should take advantage of Towson’s poor defense.
We Haven’t Seen Towson Shoot Well
The Towson Tigers have shot just 23.7% from three and 42.5% from inside the arc against D1 play. The team has also hit just 58.3% from the foul line.
That said, James Madison ranks No. 1 defensive rebounding in the nation. It’s early and won’t last, but if Towson misses shots, the Tigers won’t get many second chances.
The Pick
I really like James Madison at +3.5. Let’s take it.
NCAAB Pick: James Madison +3.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
