Some exciting games are on the college basketball slate, including a matchup between Illinois and Alabama. Before heading to the top-rated sportsbooks, I asked the AI Model for its favorite bet in that game, along with two outs. Let’s get right to it!
Picks Summary
- Arizona State -17.5 (-110)Â
- Illinois/Alabama 167.5 (-110)
- San Jose State +19.5 (-110)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Cal Poly Mustangs vs. Arizona State Sun Devils
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Desert Financial Arena
The AI Model believes Arizona State will win 87-69 over Cal Poly. As 17.5-point favorites, Arizona State is the play tonight.
Cal Poly Won’t Get Freebies
The Cal Poly Mustangs have shot the ball particularly well to begin the season. However, don’t expect that to continue against Arizona State.
The Arizona State Sun Devils have held teams to 28.8% from three and 48.1% from inside the arc. Additionally, Cal Poly has turned the ball over nearly 25% of the time and rarely gets to the foul line. That’s massive news, especially since Arizona State doesn’t foul much in the first place.
There won’t be many foul shots for Cal Poly tonight.
Arizona State Can Take Advantage Inside
The Arizona State Sun Devils have added just 25.5% of offensive rebounds. That’s not a strength. However, the real strength is scoring the basketball.
The Sun Devils have nailed 37.5% from three, 55.2% from two and 74.5% from the foul line. You can expect the Sun Devils to get to the foul line more often. In addition, they’ll have their way shooting the ball inside. Arizona State is also known for taking a bunch of threes. They have some good shooters who will get better looks than in previous games. That’ll help, too.
The Pick
Ride with Arizona State at -17.5 tonight.
NCAAB Pick: Arizona State -17.5 (-110) at Bet365
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Legacy Arena at BJCC
The AI Model believes Illinois and Alabama will combine for 166 points. However, Bet365 is carrying a total of 167.5. That means the Under is the best bet in this matchup.
Alabama’s Defense Looks Strong
The Alabama Crimson Tide haven’t been able to force turnovers much. However, they’ve done well everywhere else on defense. Alabama has held teams to 29.8% from three and 43.6% from inside the arc. Opponents have also added just 25.4% of offensive rebounds against Alabama this season.
Of course, Illinois is an electric offense. But they’ll have some trouble against a top-tier defense like Alabama.
Illinois Is Even Better
The Illinois defense is much better than Alabama’s so far. Illinois has held teams to 23% from deep and 40.6% from inside the arc. Opponents have laughably hit just 54.7% from the foul line against Illinois.
Alabama will be better at the foul line. However, the Crimson Tide have still only hit 70% from the foul line this season. Beyond that, Alabama has only dropped 30.4% from downtown this season.
That doesn’t excite anyone.
The Pick
Let’s back the Under 167.5 in this top-25 ranked matchup.
NCAAB Pick: Illinois/Alabama Under 167.5 (-110) at Bet365
San Jose State Spartans vs. USC Trojans
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Galen Center
The AI Model likes San Jose State to lose to USC by 19 points. However, you can find San Jose State at +19.5. That’s where the value is in this game.
San Jose State Can Keep Turnovers Down
The San Jose State Spartans haven’t shot the ball well this season. They’ve hit 25.7% from three and 44.4% from inside the arc. However, San Jose State should be able to limit turnovers. They’ve only turned the ball over 11.9% of the time this season. Fewer turnovers mean more shot attempts and opportunities.
With USC allowing teams to shoot 36.3% from three and 51.7% from two, San Jose State could see more shots fall tonight.
USC Is Ineffective On The Offensive Glass
The USC Trojans have added just 24.2% of offensive rebounds. They’ve also shot just 29.8% from three. These are two areas where they’ve been awful.
It’s very hard to win by 20+ points when you’re shooting poorly from three and not getting offensive rebounds off those misses.
The Pick
I’m on the Spartans at +19.5 with the AI Model.
NCAAB Pick: San Jose State +19.5 (-110) at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
