It’s not the most exciting betting card in college basketball tonight, but the AI model is still targeting a few games. Below, I’ll provide projections and picks for tonight’s slate.
Picks Summary
- Wichita State-Memphis Under 158 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Maryland +9 (-110) at Bet365
- San Francisco +10.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Wichita State Shockers vs. Memphis Tigers
Thursday, January 23, 2025 – 7:00 PM ET at FedExForum
The AI Model predicts Wichita State and Memphis will combine for 157 points tonight. Meanwhile, Caesars lists the total at 158. The Under has the most value in this game.
Wichita State Will Struggle Tonight!
The Wichita State Shockers have tallied a 50% effective field goal percentage by hitting 30.6% from three and 51.6% from inside the arc.
Ultimately, Wichita State doesn’t take a lot of threes. They’d rather score inside. That said, the Shockers have also added just 29.3% of offensive rebounds and have been blocked on more than 10% of shots this season.
Memphis should be able to block at a high rate against Wichita State and likely won’t allow many three-point shots to go down.
Strange Offense From Memphis
The Memphis Tigers can make it rain from downtown. However, the Tigers also turn the ball over more than 20% of the time.
Wichita State isn’t much of a threat to force turnovers, but against Memphis, the Shockers will likely end up with some more turnovers in this game.
Additionally, Memphis has only shot 50.5% from inside the arc and typically tries to get to the foul line quickly.
Wichita State has limited teams’ access to the charity stripe this season, which should continue against Memphis. The Under is appealing in this game.
NCAAB Pick: Under 158 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Maryland Terrapins vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
Thursday, January 23, 2025 – 9:00 PM ET at State Farm Center
The AI Model predicts Illinois will earn an eight-point win over Maryland at home tonight. However, Maryland is getting nine points at Bet365. Back Maryland against the spread.
Don’t Look at Maryland’s Shooting Percentage!
The Maryland Terrapins have shot a 55.3% effective field goal percentage. They’ve hit 36.1% from three and 56% from inside the arc.
That might change against an Illinois defense that ranks fourth in defensive effective field goal percentage.
However, the Terrapins should still be able to limit turnovers, which will add more shots. The more shots, the better. So even if the field goal percentage isn’t as good, Maryland should still score at a solid rate.
After all, Illinois ranks 336 in defensive turnovers with only 14.5%.
Maryland Can Defend The Three!
The Illinois Fighting Illini are known for their three-point shooting. They’ve scored over 35% from downtown and rank 27th in 3PA/FGA. Illinois likes to shoot threes.
That said, Maryland has held teams to 31.7% from three and 47.4% from inside the arc. The Terrapins should make life difficult for Illinois, especially around the three-point line.
Illinois has nailed only 32.7% from downtown and could struggle to add offensive rebounds, with Maryland limiting teams to 26.2% of offensive rebounds.
I really like Maryland at +9 tonight.
NCAAB Pick: Maryland +9 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
San Francisco Dons vs. Saint Mary’s Gaels
Thursday, January 23, 2025 – 9:00 PM ET at University Credit Union Pavilion
The AI Model predicts San Francisco will only lose to St. Mary’s, 73-64. Meanwhile, San Francisco is +10.5 at Caesars. There’s reason to bet on the Dons tonight.
San Francisco’s Three-Point Potential
The San Francisco Dons have shot a 55.5% effective field goal percentage this season. They’ve nailed 36.1% from downtown and 56.7% from inside the arc.
It might get challenging trying to score inside. After all, St. Mary’s has held teams to 44.4% from inside the arc.
However, the Gaels have allowed teams to shoot nearly 33% from deep. San Francisco can take advantage of this from long range. The Dons have already scored 36.6% of points from three and shoot at an above-average rate.
San Francisco Must Work On The Glass!
The St. Mary’s Gaels aren’t an elite shooting team. They’ve actually hit 50.1% of points from inside the arc, which ranks 213th in the nation.
However, the Gaels have added 42.5% of offensive rebounds, which has helped them earn more second chances and, ultimately, more points.
That said. San Francisco has limited teams to 28.7% of offensive rebounds. If the Dons can keep St. Mary’s below their average on the glass, San Francisco will easily stick around in this game.
I’ll take my chances with San Francisco at +10.5.
NCAAB Pick: San Francisco +10.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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