So many elite college basketball games are on the agenda tonight that I asked the AI Model to help me find the best three bets on the slate. Here’s what it looked like tonight.
Picks Summary
- Houston -1.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Xavier -1 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Tennessee +5.5 (-110) at Bet365
Houston Cougars vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Saturday, January 25, 2025 – 06:30 PM ET at Allen Fieldhouse
The AI Model predicts Houston will defeat Kansas, 65-63, in this substantial Big 12 matchup. Meanwhile, Houston is -1.5 on the road and would cover a two-point win.
Turnovers Could Be The Difference
The Houston Cougars are playing incredible basketball right now. They’re coming off a game where the defense held Utah to under 40 points.
Ultimately, Houston has earned 23.5% of turnovers per game and ranks as the No. 1 defense in the nation.
Houston has held teams to an effective field goal percentage of 41.8%, including just 39.6% from inside the arc.
Meanwhile, Kansas has shot just 33.3% from deep and 55.3% from inside the arc. These are solid numbers but nothing to rave about. Houston’s defense could really show up tonight.
Houston Could Get More Shots Up
Kansas has limited teams to 28.6% from three and 43.5% from inside the arc. The Jayhawks are also an elite defense. However, Kansas has added just 17.2% of turnovers. Again, Houston should be able to add more turnovers and typically dominate the offensive glass even more.
In a tight, low-scoring game, you’d expect Houston to survive with more shot attempts, more second chances, and overall more turnovers gained.
Let’s ride with the AI Model and take Houston at -1.5 and -110 NCAAB odds.
NCAAB Pick: Houston -1.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
UConn Huskies vs. Xavier Musketeers
Saturday, January 25, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Cintas Center
The AI Model believes Xavier will earn a two-point win at home against the UConn Huskies tonight. Meanwhile, Xavier is only -1 against the spread. The Musketeers would cover with a two-point win.
It’s Not Connecticut’s Year!
The Connecticut Huskies are still one of the best offenses in the country. They’ve added 36.8% from downtown and 59% from inside the arc.
However, Connecticut hasn’t consistently reached the foul line, and it will have to face an above-average Xavier defense on the defensive glass.
Xavier has also limited teams to 32.7% from three and 47.2% from inside the arc, which is really good, too.
The Huskies Don’t Defend Well
But while Connecticut’s offense is elite, its defense is far from it. This season, Connecticut has allowed a 42.6 FTA/FGA and has watched teams shoot 37.4% from downtown.
The Huskies have also added just 17% of turnovers and have been a bit unlucky with teams shooting it well from the foul line.
That likely won’t change. For one, Xavier is home. Secondly, Xavier has nailed 78.5% from the foul line this season. That’ll help down the stretch. Take Xavier to pull off an epic win against UConn.
NCAAB Pick: Xavier -1 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Auburn Tigers
Saturday, January 25, 2025 – 08:30 PM ET at Neville Arena
The AI Model predicts Tennessee will only lose to Auburn, 73-68. That’s a five-point loss, but Tennessee is +5.5 against the spread. The Volunteers are a sneaky play against the spread tonight.
Auburn Could Fail Tonight
The Auburn Tigers are the No. 1 offense in the nation. However, the Tigers could be without Johni Broome for the third consecutive game. The Tigers also haven’t gotten to the foul line much and could miss more shots than usual.
After all, Tennessee has the nation’s third-best defense and has held teams to 25.9% from three and 45.3% from inside the arc.
Auburn struggles offensively. Few teams can stop them, but Tennessee is certainly one of them analytically.
Tennessee Must Take Advantage In Two Areas
The Tennessee Volunteers have added 39.5% of offensive rebounds. They must continue dominating the glass and ultimately winning the rebound battle on the road.
Meanwhile, Auburn has also allowed a 35.6 FTA/FGA ratio. That’s 237th in the nation. Tennessee must also get to the foul line more frequently to get by Auburn.
Ultimately, Tennessee doesn’t foul much. The Vols should be able to reach the foul line more often. In addition, Tennessee is way better on the offensive glass.
If Tennessee can do the little things on the road, the Vols will be in a great position to cover.
NCAAB Pick: Tennessee +5.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
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