While the college basketball slate is short, some huge games are still on the horizon this afternoon. I asked the AI Model to project some of the games and added the best bets for each below.
Picks Summary
- Northwestern-Illinois Under 149.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Oklahoma State +18.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Army -2.5 (-110) at Bet365
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
Sunday, January 26, 2025 – 03:00 PM ET at State Farm Center
The AI Model predicts Northwestern and Illinois will combine for 148 points tonight. However, the total is stuck at 149.5. The Under is actually the play in this Big Ten tilt.
The Wildcats Can’t Beat The Illinois Defense
The Northwestern Wildcats have shot 32.7% from deep and 50.3% from inside. They have also done well in keeping turnovers down, but that’s all they have done well on offense this season.
Illinois has limited teams to a 43.6% effective field goal percentage and has held teams to 23.8% offensive rebounds per game.
After losing two straight, the Illinois defense should be extremely good at home in tonight’s game. They’ll be prepared.
Northwestern Can Hold Illinois Below Season’s Average
I fully expected Illinois to win this game-handedly. That said, I still think Northwestern’s defense can hold Illinois below its seasonal average on offense.
The Wildcats have limited teams to 33.1% from deep and 48.7% from inside the arc. Meanwhile, Illinois has shot 32.1% from three, which isn’t great, and still takes a lot of threes per game.
That’ll favor Northwestern’s defense. The best bet in this game is the Under 149.5 at -110 betting odds.
NCAAB Pick: Under 149.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Sunday, January 26, 2025 – 03:00 PM ET at United Supermarkets Arena
The AI Model believes Oklahoma State will lose by 18 to Texas Tech today. However, the Oklahoma State Cowboys are +18.5 via Caesars. An 18-point loss would still help the Cowboys cover here.
The Cowboys Need To Do The Little Things!
The Oklahoma State Cowboys have shot just a 48.1% effective field goal percentage. That won’t get them a win on the road against Texas Tech.
But for us, the goal is for Oklahoma State not to get blown out by 20. That’s possible.
Ultimately, the Cowboys have reached the foul line at a super high rate and have nailed 72.6% from the line this season. Oklahoma State has also recorded more than 34% of offensive rebounds. They’ll need a lot of second chances off misses to stay in this game.
The Cowboys won’t find success inside but have still shot 33% from deep. A handful of threes and a bunch of second chances should help Oklahoma State stay in this one.
Could Texas Tech Have An Off Night?
The Texas Tech Red Raiders have drained 38.9% from three and 56.2% from inside the arc. They’ll have no problems hitting shots all over the field tonight.
That said, what happens when Texas Tech misses? Typically, the Red Raiders earn a ton of rebounds and rarely turn the ball over.
However, Oklahoma State has gained 25.5% of offensive rebounds and 21% of turnovers. If the Cowboys can continue at those rates in tonight’s game, they’ll easily stay.
Grab Oklahoma State at +18.5 per our AI Model.
NCAAB Pick: Oklahoma State +18.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Navy Midshipmen vs. Army Black Knights
Sunday, January 26, 2025 – 03:30 PM ET at Christl Arena
The AI Model predicts Army will add a 72-69 win over Navy in today’s game. Army is currently listed at -2.5 against the spread. Therefore, the best play in this game is Army at -2.5.
Navy Could Have Trouble Getting To The Foul Line
The Navy Midshipmen have only shot an effective field goal percentage of 47.9%. The team shot 33.2% from three and 46.8% from inside the arc. More importantly, the Midshipmen rank 223 in FGA/FTA on offense.
Navy doesn’t shoot well or get to the foul line often. Plus, while Navy has had some success on the offensive glass, Army has limited teams to just 26.1% of offensive rebounds.
It’s unlikely that Navy gets many second chances or even gets to the foul line much. The Midshipmen will have to rely on their shooting, which is already horrendous, especially inside.
Army Stands Out Inside
The Army Black Knights are also not a terrific offense. The team has grabbed just 25.3% of offensive rebounds and doesn’t see the foul line much.
That said. Navy tends to send teams to the foul line more often. In addition, the Black Knights have shot 52.6% from inside the arc.
With Navy allowing 53.3% from inside on defense, Army has an area to exploit. Gtab Army at -2.5.
NCAAB Pick: Army -2.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
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