The college basketball conference tournaments have been electric this year! It’s only going to get crazier down the stretch! I’ve added three picks using the AI Model for tonight’s key matchups. Check it out below!
Picks Summary
- Arizona +6.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- St. John’s -6.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Duke -6.5 (-110) at Bet365
Arizona Wildcats vs. Houston Cougars
March 15, 2025 – 6:00 PM ET at T-Mobile Center
Arizona Has A Chance!
The Arizona Wildcats have shot a 53% effective field goal percentage with 36.3% of offensive rebounds and a high FTA/FGA ratio. The offense hasn’t hit a high rate from downtown but has still added 55.3% from inside the arc and 78.5% from the foul line.
Ultimately, Arizona has had just 6.7% of shots blocked and has given up just 9.2% of steals. If the Wildcats can keep these numbers true tonight, Houston will have a hard time getting a lot of stops on defense.
While Houston has limited teams from the field, the Cougars have also allowed 29.5% of offensive rebounds and a 34.6 FTA/FGA ratio.
The Wildcats should add a high rate of second chances and will likely see the foul line consistently. That is a recipe for success for Arizona.
Can Houston Do Enough Inside?
The Houston Cougars have only turned the ball over 14.7% of the time this season. While that should help them get more shots, they have only shot 49.1% from inside the arc.
The Cougars also don’t get to the foul line nearly as much as Arizona does.
Beyond that, Arizona has also consistently shot it better from the foul line this season. Houston has hit only 73.7% from the stripe.
Take a chance with the Arizona Wildcats at +6.5.
NCAAB Pick: Arizona +6.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Creighton Bluejays vs. St. John’s Red Storm
Saturday, March 15, 2025 – 6:30 PM ET at Madison Square Garden
How Will Creighton Score?
Creighton and St. John’s split the season series earlier this year. Creighton beat St. John’s, 57-56 in December and lost, 79-73 in February.
A low-scoring game is probable. After all, Creighton has turned the ball over 18% of the time and has added just 26.9% of offensive rebounds with a low FTA/FGA ratio.
The Bluejays can still shoot it well from the floor, but St. John’s currently ranks No.1 in adjusted efficiency per KenPom. Nothing will come easy for Creighton on offense.
Why St. John’s Has The Edge
After all, St. John’s isn’t much better offensively. The Red Storm likely won’t see the foul line much, either, and have shot just 30% from downtown this season.
That said, Creighton has earned only 11.7% of turnovers. The Johnnies will have more possessions to work with. Plus, the Red Storm have also added 37.5% of offensive rebounds and should win the rebounding battle.
The turnovers and rebounds will be the difference in this game. St. John’s should prevail. I’m rolling with St. John’s at -6.5.
NCAAB Pick: St. John’s -6.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Louisville Cardinals vs. Duke Blue Devils
Saturday, March 15, 2025 – 8:30 PM ET at Spectrum Center
Can Duke Survive Being Shorthanded?
The Duke Blue Devils won’t have Cooper Flagg for tonight’s championship game against the Louisville Cardinals. It’s also unlikely we’ll see Maliq Brown, who dislocated his shoulder earlier in the tournament.
The Blue Devils went on an earlier run against the North Carolina Tar Heels and got up by 20+. However, the Tar Heels made a comeback and almost forced overtime.
Duke’s depth has dwindled, and it showed in the second half.
Still, the offense and defense both rank inside the top five via KenPom. The offense doesn’t get to the foul line often but should be able to succeed on the offensive glass and limit turnovers.
The Three-Ball Will Hurt Louisville!
The Louisville Cardinals have already turned the ball over more than Duke. In addition, Louisville has shot just 33.2% from deep this season. That’s slightly below average and isn’t good, especially knowing Louisville has taken many threes this season.
Meanwhile, it’s not like Louisville can just adapt and score inside. Duke has held teams to 43.3% from inside the arc this season. Louisville won’t have it easy on the offensive end.
In addition, Duke has limited teams to 26.1% of offensive rebounds. Louisville tends to add offensive rebounds off misses, but that doesn’t seem as likely tonight.
Ride Duke at -6.5.
NCAAB Pick: Duke -6.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
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