It’s the final day of championship week! After today’s games, we’ll have an NCAA Tournament bracket to break down!
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. I asked the AI Model for its best bets for the five championship games today. Here are the best three.
Picks Summary
- Florida -5.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Memphis -4.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Michigan +3.5 (-110) at Bet365
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Florida Gators
Sunday, March 16, 2025 – 1:00 PM ET at Bridgestone Arena
The AI Model thinks Florida will win six points over Tennessee in the SEC Championship. Meanwhile, Florida is just -5.5 against the spread at Caesars. Consider Florida in this spot.
Is Florida More Balanced?
The Florida Gators are a top-ten offense and defense. Tennessee is not.
The Gators have held teams to a 45.2% effective field goal percentage and shot a 55.2% effective field goal percentage.
Florida won’t have it easy from downtown. After all, Tennessee has limited teams to 27.6% from three. That said, Tennessee still allows teams to shoot 46.6% from two-point range. There’s reason to believe Florida can attack inside and find success, even against the Volunteers.
Florida Deserves Credit On Defense, Too
Tennessee might be ranked the third-best defense in the nation, but Florida has limited teams to 29.6% from deep and 45.6% from inside the arc.
The Gators are harder to score on inside the arc and have also limited offensive rebounds to just 29% this season.
Florida stands out just a little bit more. It’s unlikely Tennessee’s offense can stick with Florida. I’ll side with the AI Model and back Florida at -5.5.
NCAAB Pick: Florida -5.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
UAB Blazers vs. Memphis Tigers
Sunday, March 16, 2025 – 3:00 PM ET at Dickies Arena
The AI Model suggests Memphis will escape with a five-point win over UAB. That said, you can find the Memphis Tigers at -4.5 against the spread at most sportsbooks. Memphis has just five losses this season, and the AI Model doesn’t expect that number to reach six just yet.
Will UAB Shoot Well Enough?
The UAB Blazers have turned the ball over 13.7% of the time and have added 38.6% of offensive rebounds. The Blazers should absolutely dominate the offensive glass, especially since Memphis has allowed nearly 32% of offensive rebounds.
But UAB might miss too many shots for the offensive rebounds even to be a factor.
The Blazers have shot 34.5% from deep and 50.8% from inside the arc this season. These are solid numbers, but won’t work against a Memphis squad that has limited teams to 32.4% from three and 48.9% from inside the arc.
Memphis Should Have It Easier
The Memphis Tigers have shot 37.8% from deep and 52.2% from two-point range. Ultimately, the Tigers should have a much easier time getting good looks. The Blazers have allowed 35.5% from deep and 50.8% from inside the arc.
Memphis doesn’t shoot many threes but is selective and smart when taking them. The Blazers have allowed 30.3% of offensive rebounds, while Memphis has gained 34.7%.
Expect Memphis to add just as many offensive rebounds as UAB.
Give me Memphis at -4.5.
NCAAB Pick: Memphis -4.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines
Sunday, March 16, 2025 – 3:30 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
The AI Model likes Wisconsin to add a three-point win against Michigan to earn a Big Ten title. However, Michigan is +3.5 against the spread and would still cover in this scenario. Ride with Big Blue today.
Wisconsin Won’t Earn Second Chances!
The Wisconsin Badgers have shot a 54.5% effective field goal percentage while shooting 35.6% from deep and 55.5% from inside the arc.
The Badgers are a top-ten offense per KenPom. However, the team has gained just 27.8% of offensive rebounds.
Wisconsin will have an issue with this tonight. Michigan has limited teams to 29.7% of offensive rebounds and should easily win today’s rebounding battle.
Michigan Is Smarter With The Ball
The Michigan Wolverines likely won’t make as many foul shots as the Badgers. However, the Wolverines could end up limiting turnovers better.
After all, Michigan has turned the ball over 20% of the time this season. But the Wolverines are facing a Wisconsin defense that has earned just 14.6% of turnovers per game.
Beyond that. Michigan has allowed just 7.2% of shots to be blocked. Wisconsin doesn’t really force many blocked shots. These are multiple areas where Michigan can exploit Wisconsin and stick around in the game.
Let’s ride Michigan at +3.5.
NCAAB Pick: Michigan +3.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
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