While some power conferences are closing up the regular season, there are plenty of intriguing conference tournament games on tonight’s college basketball slate. I used the AI Model to pinpoint where the value is.
Here are three bets to consider for tonight’s slate in college basketball.
Picks Summary
- Santa Clara -15.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Troy -2.5 (-110) at Bet365
- Washington State-San Francisco Over 148.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Pepperdine Waves vs. Santa Clara Broncos
Sunday, March 9, 2025 – 8:30 PM ET at Orleans Arena
Will Pepperdine’s Streak End?
The Pepperdine Waves have won two consecutive games in the West Coast Conference and have made it into the Quarterfinal.
They’ve played well up to this point. But the reality is that Pepperdine hasn’t put up elite numbers all year.
The Waves have shot a 49.6% effective field goal percentage and have hit below 49% from inside the arc this season.
Beyond that, they’ve grabbed only 28.1% of offensive rebounds, which could be even worse against Santa Clara. Santa Clara has held teams to 27% of offensive rebounds per game this season.
Can Santa Clara Get Whatever It Wants?
Santa Clara is a top-50 offensive, according to KenPom. The Broncos have shot a 55.7% effective field goal percentage and have been consistent from inside and outside this year.
The Broncos might not see the foul line much. But they’ll shoot against a Pepperdine defense that has allowed teams to hit 34.5% from deep and 53.3% from inside the arc.
Pepperdine has also averaged only 15.2% of turnovers per game, which is way below the average.
I like Santa Clara to earn a massive win over Pepperdine tonight.
NCAAB Pick: Santa Clara -15.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Troy Trojans vs. James Madison Dukes
Sunday, March 9, 2025 – 8:30 PM ET at Pensacola Bay Center
Can You Trust Troy’s Shooting?
The Troy Trojans have only shot a 49.8% effective field goal percentage. They’ve hit only 30.1% from deep and 53.7% from inside the arc.
Meanwhile, the Trojans have also turned the ball over 20.3% of the time, which is 336th in the nation.
That’s literally a turnover every five possessions. Meanwhile, Troy still earned 38.8% of offensive rebounds and got to the foul line at a high rate. That shouldn’t change in this game.
After all, James Madison has given up more than 30% of offensive rebounds and has added only 15.5% of turnovers per game. Troy can potentially limit turnovers and continue its dominance on the glass.
While Troy’s shooting ability is difficult to trust, they’ll earn many second chances and have plenty of opportunities to score.
Can James Madison Answer The Call?
The James Madison Dukes have shot a little better, hitting a 51.1% effective field goal percentage.
They’ve also added 32% of offensive rebounds, which will be crucial against Troy, who has allowed 32% of offensive rebounds.
That said, Troy has held teams to a 47.5% effective field goal percentage and has allowed a low free throw rate.
The Trojans have also forced over 20 turnovers per game and limited teams to 32.6% from deep and 46.6% from inside the arc.
Ultimately, James Madison could struggle inside. This season, the Dukes have only shot 50.5% from two-point range.
Let’s roll with Troy at -2.5.
NCAAB Pick: Troy -2.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Washington State Cougars vs. San Francisco Dons
Sunday, March 9, 2025 – 11:00 PM ET at Orleans Arena
Washington State Can Exploit Inside!
The Washington State Cougars advanced to the next round of the West Coast Conference Tournament, where they will face the San Francisco Dons in the Quarterfinals.
Washington State has shot the ball exceptionally well this season. They’ve nailed a 56.7% effective field goal percentage while hitting 36.5% from deep and 58.1% from inside.
They’ll want to continue to score inside, especially since San Francisco has allowed teams to shoot 52% from the field this season.
San Francisco has also allowed a 35.4 FTA/FGA, which ranks 246th in college basketball.
Ultimately, Washington State has some potential. They just need to reduce turnovers slightly more than usual.
San Francisco Will Have Opportunity!
The San Francisco Dons have shot a 53.2% effective field goal percentage this season. It’s not as good as Washington State. However, the Cougars have been way worse defensively.
Washington State has allowed teams to hit 33.8% from deep and 51.9% from inside the arc. Beyond that, teams have added nearly 33% of offensive rebounds.
San Francisco isn’t always aggressive on the offensive glass. But the Dons will have more opportunities to crash the glass and earn second chances.
Consider the Over 148.5 in this one.
NCAAB Pick: Over 148.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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