We’ve got a solid slate of college basketball on the horizon tonight. I went to the AI Model to find some value.
Here are three plays to consider for tonight’s games for November 14, with the best NCAAB odds we could find at top sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Oklahoma State -10.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Grand Canyon-Arizona State Over 149.5 (-110) at Bet365
- LSU-Kansas State Over 149.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Southern Illinois Salukis vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Thursday, November 14, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Gallagher-Iba Arena
The AI Model believes the Oklahoma State Cowboys will add an 85-74 win over Southern Illinois. As 10.5-point favorites, the Big 12 squad is worth the value.
Has Oklahoma State Impressed Yet?
The Oklahoma State Cowboys aren’t expected to be an elite Power-5 team. However, they’re 2-0 with wins against Green Bay and St. Thomas.
They’ll battle an SIU defense that allowed an effective field goal percentage of 64.5 in its first game this season. Charleston added 90 points and shot 45% from three and 62.9% from inside the arc.
Oklahoma State can put up the same type of numbers as Charleston.
SIU Can’t Take Advantage Of Oklahoma State’s Defense
The only area Oklahoma State has been poor in is three-point shooting defense. The Cowboys have allowed teams to shoot 43.3% from downtown.
With that said, SIU shot just 23.8% from downtown against Charleston. At that rate, they won’t be able to take advantage of the one weakness that Oklahoma State has on defense.
The Cowboys should dominate the defensive glass and limit second-chance points. They’ll also win the turnover, free-throw, and turnover battles.
Take Oklahoma State at -10.5. The AI Model knows.
NCAAB Pick: Oklahoma State -10.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Grand Canyon Antelopes vs. Arizona State Sun Devils
Thursday, November 14, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Footprint Center
Our AI Model thinks Arizona State and Grand Canyon will score 151 points tonight. However, you can find the total at 149.5 at Bet365. Therefore, the Over is the way to go in this matchup.
Arizona State Has Shown Life
The Arizona State Sun Devils are 2-1. Their one loss came against a powerful Gonzaga team, which they lost by only eight points. Gonzaga had already knocked off Baylor by 50 points earlier in the year.
The Sun Devils have held teams to a 44.1% effective field goal percentage. Opponents have struggled to shoot the three against Arizona State this season. However, Arizona State has earned an adjusted 12.5% of turnovers.
Without turnovers, Grand Canyon will take a lot of shots. The volume will be up even if the field goal percentage is down. As long as the volume is up, so will the shot-making.
In addition, Grand Canyon has been solid on the glass, earning 34.7% of offensive rebounds. That should be sustainable against Arizona State.
Grand Canyon Lacks Defense
The Grand Canyon Antelopes have allowed teams to shoot 39.5% from deep. They’re also fouling at a high rate. While Arizona State isn’t getting to the foul line at a super good rate, the Sun Devils have shot the three at a high volume and have still made nearly 35% from downtown.
Don’t be surprised when Arizona State is feeling it from three. You heard it from me first. Both teams can score at a high rate. Take the Over.
NCAAB Pick: Over 149.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
LSU Tigers vs. Kansas State Wildcats
Thursday, November 14, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Bramlage Coliseum
The AI Model suggests LSU and Kansas State will score 150 points. However, Caesars has a total of 149.5. The Over 149.5, like the Arizona State game, is the play.
LSU Can Shoot Better!
The LSU Tigers have only hit 31.5% from deep this season. However, they’ll take on a Kansas State defense that has allowed 39.5% from downtown this year.
In addition, Kansas State has given up 42.1% of offensive rebounds. The Wildcats aren’t fouling at a high rate, but they’ll struggle to contain LSU on the glass, resulting in some easy putbacks on offense.
Kansas State Has Also Been Better On The Glass
Kansas State has already added 43.3% of offensive rebounds this season. That rate could dip a little bit against LSU. But they’ll also be very good at earning second chances.
So far, teams have shot only 11.8% from three against LSU. If that continues, Kansas State can take advantage of plenty of long misses.
Let’s roll with the Over 149.5 for this game.
NCAAB Pick: Over 149.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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