It’s not the craziest slate you’ll find in college basketball. But there are still some top-25 teams playing games tonight. Let’s check in on those games and see what the AI Model thinks.
Picks Summary
- Pacific +24 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Montana-Utah St Under 151.5 (-110) at Bet365
- San Diego St +11.5 (-110) at Bet365
Pacific Tigers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
Monday, November 18, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Bud Walton Arena
The AI Model believes Pacific will cover a 24-point spread with an 85-63 loss to Arkansas tonight. Arkansas is the No. 18 team in the country but isn’t expected to cover.
Nobody Is Impressed With Arkansas!
The Arkansas Razorbacks have shot 30.6% from deep and hit only 65.8% from the foul line. The offense has grabbed just 27.6% of offensive rebounds and hasn’t been aggressive enough to get to the foul line.
Meanwhile, Pacific has held teams to 16.7% from three and has allowed just a 42.2% effective field goal percentage. Pacific should keep Arkansas in check for some portion of this game.
Can Pacific Stay Aggressive?
The Pacific Tigers have earned a 38.6 FTA/FGA ratio. That’s above average and something Arkansas hasn’t done well on offense. Pacific could potentially get to the foul line a little bit more, which would stop the clock and allow Pacific to add points on the board to stay within reach.
While Arkansas has been terrific defensively, it’s likely Pacific takes 18+ seconds per possession on offense. On the other hand, teams have used 18.8 seconds per possession against Pacific’s defense to begin the year.
This game could be a bit slower. If Arkansas struggles from three and Pacific plays slowly, it’ll cover the 24-point spread.
NCAAB Pick: Pacific +24 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Montana Grizzlies vs. Utah State Aggies
Monday, November 18, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Dee Glen Smith Spectrum
The AI Model likes Montana and Utah State to combine for 151 points. However, at Bet365, you’ll find the total at 151.5. That means the Under has some value in this head-to-head tilt.
Montana’s Weird Start
The Montana Grizzlies have had a bizarre start. Their schedule included two Power-4 schools and two No. D1 schools. This will be their first matchup against a D1 opponent not in a Power-4 conference.
That said, Montana looked horrendous against those two power-4 schools, shooting a 39.2% effective field goal percentage. Maybe that’ll improve against Utah State. However, Utah State has still held teams to 40.6% from inside the arc, forcing 26.5% of turnovers.
The Utah State Aggies still have a very good defense and should be able to stop this Montana offense.
What To Make Of Montana’s Defense?
As I acknowledged, Montana played two power-4 offenses before this game, which is why its defensive metrics look awful.
Montana is more likely to perform better defensively. If Montana can control the clock like they’ve done in the first games, we’ll look at fewer possessions for Utah State.
Utah State ranks fourth in average length per possession. Montana will want to play slower to prevent that.
I’ll take the Under 151.5 at -110 NCAAB odds. The AI Model knows what Montana is looking to do.
NCAAB Pick: Under 151.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. San Diego State Aztecs
Monday, November 18, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Viejas Arena
The AI Model suggests backing San Diego State at +11.5 against Gonzaga. San Diego State is expected to lose by just 11 points to the Bulldogs at home.
Gonzaga Isn’t Getting To The Foul Line
The Gonzaga Bulldogs look like one of the best teams in the nation. However, the team hasn’t reached the foul line at a high rate. It’s also likely that San Diego State will slow down Gonzaga tonight.
After all, the San Diego State Aztecs have held teams to 28.6% from inside the arc to start the season. Don’t expect Gonzaga to be that bad around the rim. But Gonzaga potentially shooting 50% from inside the arc is a realistic expectation.
Can San Diego State Limit Turnovers?
The San Diego State Aztecs have turned the ball over 21.2% of the time. If they can keep turnovers down against Gonzaga at home, they’ll have a much better chance of staying in this game against the Bulldogs.
Gonzaga has also allowed 51.4% from inside the arc. The Aztecs can attack inside and score at a solid rate. That should be enough to stick around against the Bulldogs.
Grab the Aztecs at +11.5. I love that they’re home and will play in front of a sold-out venue.
NCAAB Pick: San Diego State +11.5 (-110) at Bet365
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