There are three games with at least one ranked team. We’ll examine all three and ask the AI Model for help identifying the best bets, as always, with the best NCAAB odds available at top sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- UNC Greensboro-Indiana Over 145.5 (-110) at Bet365
- Baylor (-145) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Virginia +12.5 (-110) at Bet365
UNC Greensboro Spartans vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Thursday, November 21, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall
The AI Model believes UNC Greensboro and Indiana will combine for 146 points. With the Bet365 total at 145.5, the Over has a slight value. Let’s roll with it.
UNC Greensboro Is Selective
The UNC Greensboro Spartans have shot 42.6% from inside the arc. That’s poor and won’t be good enough tonight.
That said, the Spartans have only been blocked 2.9% of the time. They’re not forcing up terrible shots. The shots aren’t falling. But that should change, even against Indiana. These are D1 athletes who are good enough on offense, no matter who they play, to hit at least 48% from inside the arc.
Indiana’s In For a Field Day
The Indiana Hoosiers have shot 39.2% from three, 62.2% from inside the arc, and 79% from the foul line. They’re not effective on the offensive glass but should be able to keep turnovers down below their average of 18%.
It’s also likely the Hoosiers will find the foul line more often and, again, they shoot 79% from the charity stripe, which is above average.
UNC Greensboro is going to try to slow this game down. However, Indiana has a super fast offense, and when things get out of hand quickly, the Spartans will have no choice but to move at a brisk pace to try to claw back into the game.
Indiana will force the Spartans to play their game. Take the Over 145.5.
NCAAB Pick: Over 145.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Baylor Bears vs. St. John’s Red Storm
Thursday, November 21, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Baha Mar Convention Center
The AI Model believes Baylor will knock off St. John’s, 78-75. You can find Baylor at -145 on the moneyline. That’s the play using the model.
Baylor’s Ability To Force Turnovers
The Baylor Bears have already forced 23.6% of turnovers per game this season, which is a very high rate.
What makes that rate more interesting is that St. John’s has turned the ball over 18.8% of the time on offense this season.
Baylor needs to defend shots better. But if they can force turnovers and play slightly better defense, they’ll get plenty of stops in this game.
The Bears Are Overall Better On Offense
Baylor currently ranks 5th in college basketball in adjusted offensive efficiency. They dominate the offensive glass and have shot 58.9% inside the arc.
In addition, they’ll likely keep turnovers down and win that battle against St. John’s.
Baylor will also take more threes than St. John’s. The good news is that Baylor, with more shot volume from downtown, has hit 35.8% from three.
I’m taking Baylor on the moneyline. The Bears check out.
NCAAB Pick: Baylor (-145) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Thursday, November 21, 2024 – 09:30 PM ET at Baha Mar Convention Center
The AI Model likes Virginia to cover a 12.5-point spread with a 12-point loss to Tennessee. Virginia is 3-0 and playing at home, but are still massive underdogs. We’ll take advantage.
Don’t Sleep On Virginia’s Defense
The Virginia Cavaliers have held their opponents to 37.5% from inside the arc. They’ve also allowed just 21.3% of offensive rebounds and rarely foul.
As long as the Cavaliers stay disciplined on defense, I like Virginia’s chances of staying in this game.
After all, Tennessee has still turned the ball over 20% of the time this season. Virginia can totally win the turnover battle in this game.
Can Virginia Rain It From Three?
The Virginia Cavaliers have a very slow offense. They limit possessions and try their hardest to force Tennessee into playing at their pace.
If that happens, that’ll only help the underdog and the under. That said, Virginia has shot 44.6% from three.
If the Cavaliers limit possessions and still hit three-pointers at that rate, they’ll easily cover a 12.5-point spread.
Let’s rock with Virginia at +12.5. Thank the AI Model when it hits.
NCAAB Pick: Virginia +12.5 (-110) at Bet365
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