The college basketball non-conference slate is off the charts tonight! Therefore, I went to the AI Model to find the best three bets for the later portion of the slate. Here’s what it’s come up with.
Picks Summary
- Iowa State +4.5 (-110) at Bet365
- Illinois -21 (-110) at Bet365
- North Carolina -8 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Auburn Tigers vs. Iowa State Cyclones
Monday, November 25, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Lahaina Civic Center
The AI Model believes Iowa State will only lose by four to the Auburn Tigers in The Maui Invitational. Both teams are undefeated, so the AI Model thinks it’ll be close. You can find Iowa State at +4.5 at Bet365. That’s clearly the play.
Iowa State Can Keep Auburn Off The Line
The Auburn Tigers are ranked No. 4 in college basketball for a reason. This team has shot an effective field goal percentage of 64%, which is the best rate in college basketball.
However, with a matchup against Iowa State, it’s hard to imagine Auburn sustains that rate. Auburn has hit more than 70% from inside the arc, but Iowa State has held teams to 43% from inside the arc.
Additionally, Iowa State loves to force turnovers and has allowed just 20.4% of offensive rebounds. Most of all, despite its aggressive defense, Iowa State isn’t sending teams to the foul line. That’ll be key tonight.
Iowa State Will Win Turnover Battle
Iowa State is dominating college basketball with 28% of turnovers on defense and just 13.3% of turnovers on offense. The Cyclones will be unstoppable if Iowa State can sustain this type of success.
With that in mind, Auburn has only recorded 17.4% of turnovers on defense this season. That won’t be good enough against Iowa State.
It’s also more likely Iowa State wins on the offensive glass, with Auburn allowing 28.3% of offensive rebounds.
This is a sneaky spot for the Cyclones. Take them at +4.5.
NCAAB Pick: Iowa State +4.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
Monday, November 25, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at State Farm Center
The AI Model believes that Illinois will defeat Arkansas Little-Rock 87-65. That’s a 22-point deficit, but you can find Illinois at -21 at Bet365.
Little Offense From Little Rock!
The Arkansas Little Rock Trojans have turned the ball over 22.7% of the time. They’ve also hit 46% from inside the arc and gained below 30% of offensive rebounds.
Meanwhile, Illinois has held opponents to 26.1% from three and 41.4% from inside the arc. The Fighting Illini have also limited foul shots and have allowed just 24.1% of offensive rebounds. This Illinois defense looks very legitimate.
Illinois Can Feast On The Glass
It’s already likely that Illinois will hit a lot of their shots against Little Rock. But even if the Fighting Illini aren’t good from three or mid-range, Illinois can dominate the glass and work their way to the foul line.
Ultimately, Little Rock has allowed 38.7% of offensive rebounds and has one of the highest FTA/FGA ratios in college basketball. Illinois will get a lot of foul shots and second chances tonight.
Grab Illinois at -21.
NCAAB Pick: Illinois -21 (-110) at Bet365
Dayton Flyers vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
Monday, November 25, 2024 – 11:30 PM ET at Lahaina Civic Center
The AI Model likes North Carolina to cover an eight-point spread against Dayton with an 83-74 win in the Maui Invitational Tournament. You can get North Carolina -8 at Caesars.
North Carolina Is Careful With The Ball!
While we’re not super deep into the season, North Carolina ranks No. 1 in college basketball with just 10.5% of turnovers per game. When the Tar Heels don’t turn the ball over, it allows for more field goal attempts and foul shots.
They’re shooting 34.8% from deep and 54.8% from inside the arc. They’ve even hit 82.6% from the foul line this year.
Can Dayton Match?
The Dayton Flyers do some really good things on offense. The Flyers have turned the ball over 13.3% of the time and hit nearly 62% from inside the arc.
That said, Dayton takes a lot of threes and has hit just 30.3% from downtown. In addition, the Flyers have knocked down just 64.9% of foul shots. That won’t be helpful down the stretch.
I agree with North Carolina at -8. Thank the AI Model when this hits.
NCAAB Pick: North Carolina -8 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
