All of the epic college basketball tournaments are going on right now. It’s one of the best times of the year if you’re a college basketball junkie. With that said, I’ve asked the AI Model for its thoughts on some of the major games on tonight’s slate. Here are three bets the model loves with the best betting odds we could find, check it out!
Picks Summary
- Michigan State-North Carolina Under 158.5 (-110)
- UConn ML (-320)
- Notre Dame +17 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Michigan State Spartans vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
Wednesday, November 27, 2024 – 09:30 PM ET at Lahaina Civic Center
The AI Model thinks North Carolina and Michigan State will combine for 157 points. However, Caesars has a total of 158.5. The Under is certainly the play.
What Happened to Michigan State’s Three-Point Shooting?
The Michigan State Spartans have hit just 22.1% from downtown this season. That’s one of the worst rates in college basketball.
It’s been a nightmare for this team from downtown.
On the other hand, North Carolina has watched teams shoot 35.5% from downtown. But they won’t have to worry much about how Michigan State has shot it from three. After all, North Carolina still holds teams to a 49.1% effective field goal percentage and has limited opponents to 46.1% from inside the arc.
No Second Chances For UNC
The North Carolina Tar Heels have shot 35.9% from three and 53.9% from inside the arc. They’ve also hit 79.8% from the foul line.
That said, Michigan State has limited teams to 29.3% from three and 47.8% from inside the arc. There’s a good chance the Tar Heels will have more misses in this game.
Since the Tar Heels have gained 27.8% of offensive rebounds, they will unlikely capitalize on second chances. It’s also unlikely they’ll get to the foul line at a very high rate, either.
This should be a lower-scoring game between two top-50 defenses.
NCAAB Pick: Under 158.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
UConn Huskies vs. Dayton Flyers
Wednesday, November 27, 2024 –12:00 AM ET at Lahaina Civic Center
The AI Model likes UConn to defeat Dayton by seven points tonight. The Huskies are -320 on the moneyline, which feels like a steal for how good this team can be. Grab the Huskies at -320 via Caesars.
Bounce Back From UConn?
After back-to-back Maui Invitational losses to Memphis and Colorado, the UConn Huskies are in shambles.
That said, both games were winnable and close at the buzzer.
The Huskies still have the nation’s No. 4 offense and have held teams to 39.3% from inside the arc this season.
All the Huskies need to do is limit foul shots and get to the line more. Against Dayton, that’s likely going to happen. Dayton ranks 249th in FTA/FGA, which should give the Huskies more opportunities on the stripe.
Dayton Won’t Win On The Glass
The Dayton Flyers have added just 29.9% of offensive rebounds. That won’t help them with second chances, primarily if Dayton shoots poorly from the field.
As I acknowledged earlier, UConn has held teams to 39.3% from inside the arc. If The Huskies defend the three better, Dayton will have difficulty scoring or finding other opportunities to score after misses.
Let’s take UConn at -320. This seems like a steal.
NCAAB Pick: UConn ML (-320) at Caesars Sportsbook
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Houston Cougars
Wednesday, November 27, 2024 – 12:30 AM ET at MGM Grand Garden Arena
The AI Model believes Notre Dame will lose to the Houston Cougars, 76-61. That’s a 15-point deficit. However, Notre Dame is a 17-point underdog. After an overtime loss to Rutgers, Notre Dame looks good enough to stick around against Houston.
Can Houston Continue Hot Shooting From Three?
The Houston Cougars have shot 45.5% from three, making them the No. 2 team in the nation from downtown. However, it’s unlikely this rate will continue after yesterday’s deflating loss to Alabama in overtime.
Houston has shot incredibly well from three but also incredibly poor from inside. The Cougars have hit only 46.2% from inside the arc, while Notre Dame has allowed 45% from inside the arc.
Notre Dame defends without fouling and has allowed just 28.7% of offensive rebounds. This team should stay the course against Houston defensively.
How Notre Dame Can Stay In The Game
Houston has the No. 3 ranked defense in the nation. Don’t expect Notre Dame to shoot lights out.
That said, Notre Dame hasn’t been getting to the line much. That could change against Houston. The Cougars rank 206th in FTA/FGA, a below-average rate. On top of that, the Cougars have allowed nearly as many offensive rebounds as Notre Dame this season.
I’ll test my luck with Notre Dame at +17.
NCAAB Pick: Notre Dame +17 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
